Danny cheng
Technology Investor, Homily Charts & Technical Analysis
SpaceX has broken out above its prior $150 resistance zone and is continuing higher as whale accumulation surges to 85.18%. The earlier volatility hole and descending ribbon marked the cycle bottom amid retail fear. Momentum bars at $147, $151 and $161 should act as support, with resistance at $176 and $190. x.com
SpaceX's trend has turned up from a volatility-hole bottom, with whale accumulation rising steadily to 47.8%. The stock is consolidating between $141 and $152; earlier breakouts through momentum bars near $115 and $139 became reliable buy signals, and a clean break above $152 would put $161.60, then $193.02 and $203, in play. x.com
SpaceX shares did not implode when the first lockup period ended, which supports staying bullish and ignoring the media telling investors what to do, though the call could still prove wrong. x.com x.com
With 208 million SpaceX shares sold short, it is a good day to remind everyone of the bullish case. x.com
SpaceX remains well above the range for building a serious long-term position, even though it will eventually be a stock long-term investors wish they had owned earlier. Young IPOs need time for price discovery, and the price paid still matters despite strong fundamentals: revenue up 92%, Starlink subscribers up 101%, AI revenue up 248%, adjusted EBITDA up 191% and about $100B of cash and securities. x.com
EchoStar offers right-tail exposure to SpaceX with significant downside protection, anchored by the stick value of its hard spectrum assets. x.com
SpaceX shares are in a final flush before accumulation, setting up a run to $300+ by early 2027. Down 39% from a $228 top, the stock should bottom at $70-80 within weeks, then chop between $80 and $112 from September through November as institutions quietly build positions while retail calls it dead. Reclaiming and holding $112, likely in December, would signal accumulation is over, after which the move should go vertical. x.com
SpaceX shares will probably drop into the $60s after the lockup expires, so now is not the right time to get involved. x.com x.com
Tesla looks set to push above $500 now that the SpaceX IPO is done, and the move should not be overlooked. x.com
SpaceX options flow turned aggressively bullish ahead of its Nasdaq 100 rebalancing near Friday's close. About $430M of deep in-the-money puts were sold at the bid, mostly expiring the next day, versus about $8M of call buying that included long-dated LEAPS, so selling puts was the dominant bullish bet. x.com x.com
SPCX still looks too pricey after its post-IPO pullback. IPO hype pushed it to 150x 2026 EV/EBITDA, and the pullback has only brought that down to 130x. By comparison, Nvidia trades at 21x next-twelve-month EPS for 88% expected growth in FY27, a 0.25x PEG. x.com
SpaceX looks set to rise before its July 7 Nasdaq-100 inclusion, as passive index buying, a low float and options-driven gamma squeezes power the stock. CRSP, FTSE Russell and MSCI inclusions also force buying regardless of valuation; above $225 it could reach $300, about $4 trillion. After that, the stance turns bearish: as lockups expire and the float grows from about 5%, early investors' selling should overwhelm buying for a loss-making company, so long-term buyers could wait a year. x.com … Show more
