A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.com 

Tesla could reach $500-plus after the SpaceX IPO. x.com 

Tesla's standalone upside is less clear at today's prices because a potential SpaceX exchange hinges on the premium Tesla holders receive and their share of the combined value. If SpaceX keeps executing at this pace, its upside, or that of the combination, looks clearer than Tesla's standalone upside. Execution remains a risk, and the valuation already discounts considerable optimism. x.com 

A possible SpaceX acquisition at $420-$550 a share is extremely bullish for Tesla. Brad Gerstner says SpaceX could acquire Tesla at that price. x.com 

The renewed friendship between Trump and Elon Musk is bullish for Tesla. Trump called Musk "one of the greatest tech founders," and per @Kalshi there is a 60% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge before 2028. x.com 

Tesla could fall to a realistic value of around $150 a share, what a car company is worth, now that dream-chasing investors can go after SpaceX instead. That repricing would be painful for Tesla shareholders. x.com 

SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's mid-term uptrend is supported by whale accumulation now exceeding 78% and a bullish red ribbon that outweighs short-term candle signals. The last volatility hole at $300 marked the cycle bottom, and previously highlighted momentum bars have flipped into support. Tesla needs to clear the next bar at $420 to unlock further price momentum. x.com 

Tesla is not worth touching in the short term because it typically consolidates from May to September and rallies only in October to December. Musk is busy with SpaceX and not promoting Tesla, so the stock is unlikely to move up for now. The plan is to revisit in September; options markets place year-end calls at $900-960, and a choppy mid-year could give way to a year-end run from $450-500 toward $900. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.com