SK hynix's record earnings and five-year volume and spec agreements make its valuation look too low. Quarterly revenue reached KRW104.62T, up 32%, and operating profit hit $63B against a $785B market cap, below AMD's and less than half Tesla's. Its planned KRW100T (~$75B) shareholder return would be one of the world's largest, signaling conviction and unusual demand visibility. AI-inference 3D DRAM is coming by 2030; a reasonable valuation is all that is sought. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor and memory stocks still look cheap despite the panic on forward earnings and growth-adjusted valuations. SK hynix trades at 4.4x forward earnings with a 0.04 PEG, Micron at 4.6x and 0.11, Sandisk at 5.5x and 0.10, and Nvidia at 14.2x and 0.22; the table extends across chipmakers and suppliers. Some of these figures may reflect peak earnings. x.com  x.com 

AMD may be the biggest asymmetry in semiconductors: a more than 2.5x valuation premium to NVIDIA for half the growth and no moat is hard to justify. When the market turns against AMD and AI momentum funds, the drop will come all at once and get nasty. x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

AMD's secured wafer supply from TSMC and ramping MI450 demand undercut Morgan Stanley's 43% cut to its AMD GPU demand forecast, especially while it leaves Nvidia's forecast untouched. The market is not buying the downgrade. x.com 

AMD is the textbook example of a stock with too much priced into its valuation: it delivered flawless earnings and still sold off. x.com 

Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com  x.com 

AMD could more than double on Wells Fargo's earnings outlook. Wells Fargo believes AMD can compound EPS 62% a year through 2028; even if the valuation multiple halves, that implies a 173% return. x.com 

Micron and other memory makers are capturing pricing power from device makers, as Apple raises Mac and iPad prices in response to rising memory chip costs. Per @DeItaone, the 512GB MacBook Air goes from $1,099 to $1,299 and the 1TB MacBook Pro from $1,699 to $1,999. Micron's latest quarter showed a 97% incremental margin on over $32B of added revenue, a historical first, and guidance points to even better growth and margins. It deserves a higher multiple than AMD, since CPUs are a commodity. … Show more