The Great Mattsby
Chartist, Gann Theory, Stocks/Crypto/FX
Individual space stocks outside SpaceX look hard to get excited about, because a huge share of the sector's liquidity and attention increasingly seems set to concentrate in SpaceX alone. That reshapes the risk/reward of owning AST SpaceMobile, BlackSky, Firefly, Lumen, Redwire, Rocket Lab and Satellogic. x.comÂ
Spire Global's valuation gap should close soon, and Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund owning it is a reason not to bet against it. SPIR is one of very few space names the fund holds, a fund with 66% annual returns since 1988 and $35B AUM. A post the author quotes puts SPIR's $640M market cap against Satellogic's $1B, Planet Labs' $12B and Rocket Lab's $40B, noting even catching up to Satellogic would put SPIR near $30. x.comÂ
Satellogic is a clearly bullish stock showing strong whale momentum, the kind to prioritize over laggards in a bullish cycle. It has been tracked on the chart since $2.70, with buy and sell signals marked along the way. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and other space stocks remain far too expensive, valuing an expectation that may never become reality. Many space stocks have crashed 50% yet still trade at 40x to 250x sales, AST at 250x, and could fall another 50% with no real value; the space economy is more science fiction than reality. @RosannaInvests argues AST is a cellular connectivity company whose carrier contracts could become recurring revenue. A 70% crash might make the risk worthwhile. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks such as Redwire and AST SpaceMobile have run too far on retail chasing and look like shorts into the SpaceX IPO. Government contracts are already priced in, and the stocks price years ahead while ignoring execution risk. The SpaceX IPO should absorb more liquidity as institutions sell the news, leaving retail holding the bag. AST SpaceMobile is the second-biggest space short after EchoStar; sell space stocks before IPO day, though the broader market can stay steady through July. … Show more
Satellogic is an early-stage company with big upside as space becomes an autonomous infrastructure layer. It is building real-time data communication satellites in low Earth orbit, and a potential SpaceX IPO could heat up the theme fast. x.comÂ
Sidus Space has great technology but looks too early to own, with better entry points likely ahead. Shifting from manufacturer to a high-margin space data business takes time, hardware iterations and capital. 2026 guidance targets $9 million in revenue after $3.4 million in 2025, and the first two quarters of growth should materialize before buying. Cash is $43.2 million with no term debt, but a $500 million shelf registration creates a dilution overhang. x.comÂ
Space stocks could soar as Goldman Sachs sees the space economy reaching $1.8 trillion by 2035. Rocket Lab, with 70+ launches and new Space Force and NASA contracts, is quietly becoming the second rocket company after SpaceX. AST SpaceMobile's satellites connect directly to phones, with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone as partners. Voyager is building NASA-backed Starlab to replace the ISS. BlackSky sells real-time imagery under long-term US government deals. SpaceX adds Starlink, Starship and xAI. … Show more
Space names like Satellogic are worth front-running ahead of the SpaceX IPO, especially at SpaceX's roughly $1.75 trillion valuation. Capital flows into the space sector should be hot, though volatile. Satellogic says SpaceX has confirmed its upcoming launch of two NewSat Mark V satellites to expand its constellation. x.comÂ
Planet Labs should offer immense value as the number one player with the best network, but management keeps failing to unlock it. As a public benefit corporation, it is not permitted some forms of monetization. It needs to get its act together and focus on revenue, and with no visibility on when or if that happens, caution is warranted. x.comÂ