Alex
Canadian Dividend Investor, Founder of The Profit Zone/Profit Academy
Nasdaq index funds will be required to buy SpaceX at market around July 6, and they will have to sell existing holdings to do it. That forced buying should likely lift SpaceX, while the selling puts downward pressure on familiar Nasdaq 100 tech names, which face significant outflows. Anyone buying tech should wait until after that date. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Nasdaq inclusion before the July 7 open, one of the fastest ever after an IPO, should bring over $4.5 billion of estimated passive buying from index funds that must buy regardless of price. It follows a Palantir-like post-IPO shakeout from $150 to $215 and back to $165, with $145-165 seen as an accumulation zone and the target still $250+. x.comÂ
US tech stocks face a short-term liquidity drain as institutions sell existing tech and AI hardware holdings to fund the SpaceX IPO on June 12. The deal will pull $75B-$85B of cash from the market, and funds must back their orders with capital by Thursday night. An early-week dead-cat bounce could give way to peak drain midweek, after which over-allocated or unused cash should flow back into tech. Macro data or a rogue headline could easily send markets the opposite way. x.comÂ
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's expansion could dilute shareholders and flood the spot market with compute capacity, making 2027 a potential disaster despite this quarter's results. A large share of its proposed capacity would go to the spot market, unlike Meta's internally used capacity; valuing it as if peak spot prices last forever ignores that risk. SpaceX should be down, not up, on that outlook. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 faces forced selling as SpaceX is rushed into the index on July 3, just 15 trading days after its IPO, followed by insider lockup expiries. QQQ trackers must buy SpaceX at about 120x revenue and a $2.27 trillion cap by trimming Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft. Then 20% of insider shares unlock in late July, 7% chunks follow through October, and the rest on December 8. The break above 30,000 was a blow-off; the roadmap runs from 30,438 to 22,780, 16,324 and about 13,000. x.comÂ
SpaceX options flow turned aggressively bullish ahead of its Nasdaq 100 rebalancing near Friday's close. About $430M of deep in-the-money puts were sold at the bid, mostly expiring the next day, versus about $8M of call buying that included long-dated LEAPS, so selling puts was the dominant bullish bet. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX faces heavy turbulence this week from its first earnings as a public company on August 4 and an August 6 lockup expiry that makes about 911M shares, roughly $116B, sellable. Much of that unlock fear may already be priced in after a roughly 50% drop from the peak, and once past the overhang a relief rally across space stocks should follow. It is still not one to buy for another few months. x.comÂ
Nasdaq-100 trackers are about to be forced buyers of SpaceX at the worst price, funded by selling the index's best businesses. Around July 6, about 15 trading days after its IPO, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 under rewritten rules that scrapped the float requirement. Cuts are proportional to weight, so Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia get trimmed hardest to buy a company losing $4 billion a quarter, near 100 times sales after a run from $135 toward $200. The S&P 500 kept its profitability rule. x.com … Show more
