Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Eli Lilly's acquisition of ATAI further validates the psychedelic therapy thesis behind DFTX and Compass Pathways. The working view is that these companies' trials are slam dunks: humans have known about psychedelics' efficacy for thousands of years, and clinical data is finally catching up. These companies could help millions of people. For DFTX, an acquisition would be unwelcome because it would cap the upside. x.com x.comÂ
Psychedelic therapy stocks such as DFTX and Compass Pathways remain highly bullish from current levels, but their maximum upside may be smaller than classic pharma's. Traditional treatments are a lifetime of daily pills, while these studies show promise with just one or a few doses, which may cap market size. That responds to a post the author replies to predicting a likely Q4 FDA filing and a trillion-dollar industry if psilocybin leaves Schedule 1. x.comÂ
Big pharma's push into psychedelics, with Eli Lilly buying Atai Life Sciences after AbbVie's deal, is positive for Helus Pharma, the only other company identified with new-chemical-entity patent protection in the field. Helus looks about two years ahead of Atai, with stronger treatment-resistant depression data, at a fraction of its valuation. Its drawback is two dosing sessions of 3-4 hours each versus Atai's single 90-minute visit, so it stays a higher-risk holding. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly using its GLP-1 cash to buy a psychedelics company is a welcome move. x.comÂ
Compass Pathways and Atai Life Sciences could do something special over the next five years as psychedelic medicine gains federal support. Psychedelic stocks rallied after Trump ordered faster PTSD research, with Compass up 25% pre-market. x.comÂ
Helus Pharma offers the most outsized upside in psychedelics: political tailwinds may push some therapies through on weak evidence, and it trades at a tenth of Compass Pathways' and ATAI's valuations. Approval costs politicians little, with Leucovorin and peptides as precedents and Joe Rogan's sway possibly feeding midterms. Helus posted the best efficacy, on a small sample. It just raised cash and rarely raises opportunistically, while ATAI and Compass need cash, so downside looks lowest. x.com … Show more
Definium looks like prime, scarce real estate as Big Pharma hunts for neuropsychiatry assets and the shopping list gets very short. After AbbVie's move, Eli Lilly is now putting up to $3.8B into atai, and the tide is rising for the group. x.comÂ
Definium Therapeutics edges out Compass Pathways on peak potential, though both have good management and unique psychedelic drugs. Compass's lead indication, treatment-resistant depression, and Definium's, generalized anxiety disorder, are each about $1.5 billion opportunities, and both target PTSD. Definium also has strong MDD data, adding a $2-3 billion indication. Its LSD session lasts only about six hours, not the 12 hours critics cite. x.com x.comÂ
Eli Lilly at new record highs still trades at only 26x forward earnings despite 55% revenue growth and triple-digit EPS growth last quarter. EPS is projected to grow 51% this year. x.comÂ
Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.comÂ
The biotech and genomics boom is best owned broadly, because single biotech stocks are binary bets on trial results no analyst can handicap. One failed readout can halve a stock, as Novo Nordisk's lost market value on disappointing data showed. Owning blue-chip biotech and high-beta genomics as diversified baskets captures the funding rebound, the AI drug-discovery tailwind and the re-rating after years of deep bear market and a decisive breakout, without the single-molecule lottery. x.com x.com … Show more
