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Special Situations & Volatility Investor, Wall Street Background
Big pharma's push into psychedelics, with Eli Lilly buying Atai Life Sciences after AbbVie's deal, is positive for Helus Pharma, the only other company identified with new-chemical-entity patent protection in the field. Helus looks about two years ahead of Atai, with stronger treatment-resistant depression data, at a fraction of its valuation. Its drawback is two dosing sessions of 3-4 hours each versus Atai's single 90-minute visit, so it stays a higher-risk holding. x.comÂ
Helus Pharma is the favorite psychedelic stock now that Trump's executive order directs the FDA to speed psychedelic approvals, possibly yielding a first approval next year. Its Phase 2 showed the best depression results in medical history, it is funded through Phase 3 data due Q4 2026, and only it holds strong composition-of-matter patents that big pharma wants. Clean HLP003 data could mean a 100%-plus move. The board-requested exit of CEO Mike Cola reads as net bullish. Very high risk. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Helus Pharma offers the most outsized upside in psychedelics: political tailwinds may push some therapies through on weak evidence, and it trades at a tenth of Compass Pathways' and ATAI's valuations. Approval costs politicians little, with Leucovorin and peptides as precedents and Joe Rogan's sway possibly feeding midterms. Helus posted the best efficacy, on a small sample. It just raised cash and rarely raises opportunistically, while ATAI and Compass need cash, so downside looks lowest. x.com … Show more
Eli Lilly's acquisition of ATAI further validates the psychedelic therapy thesis behind DFTX and Compass Pathways. The working view is that these companies' trials are slam dunks: humans have known about psychedelics' efficacy for thousands of years, and clinical data is finally catching up. These companies could help millions of people. For DFTX, an acquisition would be unwelcome because it would cap the upside. x.com x.comÂ
Definium Therapeutics edges out Compass Pathways on peak potential, though both have good management and unique psychedelic drugs. Compass's lead indication, treatment-resistant depression, and Definium's, generalized anxiety disorder, are each about $1.5 billion opportunities, and both target PTSD. Definium also has strong MDD data, adding a $2-3 billion indication. Its LSD session lasts only about six hours, not the 12 hours critics cite. x.com x.comÂ
Definium Therapeutics has turned from a high-risk bet into a much safer biotech investment after its single-dose DT120 cleared phase 3 in three of four major trials, all headed to the FDA together. Success in the fourth looks priced in, so full FDA approval is the next catalyst, plus possible Trump administration psychedelics moves. Analyst targets of $70-90 could be reached with commercialization in a couple of years, though more multibaggers are unlikely. Support should hold near $35. x.comÂ
Compass Pathways and Atai Life Sciences could do something special over the next five years as psychedelic medicine gains federal support. Psychedelic stocks rallied after Trump ordered faster PTSD research, with Compass up 25% pre-market. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly using its GLP-1 cash to buy a psychedelics company is a welcome move. x.comÂ
Definium looks like prime, scarce real estate as Big Pharma hunts for neuropsychiatry assets and the shopping list gets very short. After AbbVie's move, Eli Lilly is now putting up to $3.8B into atai, and the tide is rising for the group. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly is well positioned for an AI-driven biotech boom, and strong Q2 results back that up. Revenue reached $22.97B against $20.59B expected, with Zepbound at $4.93B and Mounjaro at $9.9B both ahead of estimates. Lilly raised full-year revenue guidance to $85-87B from $82-85B and committed an additional $4.5B to expand manufacturing. x.com x.comÂ
