Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan
Fundamental Growth Investor, B2B/Sector Leaders & Picks-and-Shovels
Grab only becomes compelling below $3, because the industry is unattractive and its revenue carries tiny margins. At $3.66 it is merely interesting as a low-downside swing trade under $3-3.20, to be sold into an earnings pop; a re-entry would need roughly 3x 2026 sales. Other holdings look cheaper on every metric that matters. x.comÂ
Grab's growth now depends on rising spending to retain market share and GMV, a pattern that has persisted for several quarters despite a fairly strong Q1. The stock is also in a long-term downtrend with no inflection in sight, and the rule is to buy only strength or inflections. x.comÂ
Flowers Foods shows how a bad acquisition can overwhelm the operating business. Beyond destroying years of earnings, it signals that management is untrustworthy or incompetent, telling the market not to bother valuing the operating business because shareholders will never see those earnings. A weak operating business can turn around, but there is no outrunning a management team set on bad deals. x.comÂ
Grab's CEO buying about $30 million of stock signals management sees the gap between a falling share price and improving execution. Anthony Tan's first open-market purchase since the IPO came below the prior 52-week low, with COO Alex Hungate also buying. Grab trades near a $7 billion enterprise value against guided $4.2 billion revenue and $720-740 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 44-48%. It is no perfect bottom signal, given noisy GAAP profit and Southeast Asian macro pressure. x.comÂ
Grab's CEO bought $30 million of shares at $2.89, an insider purchase worth following. @Mike_S_222 points to a 4 billion float, but a big float doesn't stop a stock from moving big, as Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia show. x.com x.comÂ