AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.com 

AppLovin faces a long repair after its trend broke, even though its fundamentals rank in the top 30 of 2,000 stocks. Shares fell almost 60% from above $745 to near $315 after an August report, with revenue up 53% and an 84% EBITDA margin, narrowly missed its guidance midpoint, cracking the endless-beat assumption behind its multiple. Price sits below a falling 200-day average, and holders waiting for break-even must clear first. If the trend turns, 16.8x earnings for 37% growth would be rare. … Show more

AppLovin looks cheap at current levels unless something catastrophic is happening beneath the surface. Per @stock_analysisx, its EPS rose from $0.09 to $13 in four years while the stock is down 60% from its high at 15x forward earnings. Still, reaching its above-30% annual growth target through Axon recommendation-engine improvements alone seems unlikely. x.com  x.com 

AppLovin needs a very clean quarter to rebuild confidence. Investors question how much market-share runway its gaming ad business has left and how sustainable its very high margins are, and last quarter's model-upgrade cadence issues raised new execution concerns. Gaming ads must remain the central growth engine, since e-commerce will not be big enough for a while. x.com  x.com 

AppLovin's slight revenue miss should drive momentum traders out of the 50% growth story; the stock fell 22%. Per @wallstengine, Q2 revenue was $1.92B against a $1.94B estimate, up 53%, adjusted EBITDA of $1.61B also missed, and free cash flow of $863.3M fell well short of the $1.29B estimate. x.com 

AppLovin's growth, liquidity, free cash flow and profitability make it the clear winner among beaten-down stocks with attractive fundamentals. Research Desk's chart shows EPS generally beating estimates, though the latest revenue missed. x.com 

AppLovin is probably stuck for a while after falling more than 50% this year, partly penalized unfairly for The Trade Desk's fall as a fellow black-box ad-tech name. Too few holders understood the business on the way up, which makes the way down painful. It may become a good long in 2027, pending more work on valuation. x.com 

AppLovin's economics and margins may be almost too good to last, because unusually good economics act as a flashing red light inviting competition. Rivals could gradually raise acquisition costs, bid harder for supply or push AppLovin to share more with advertisers and publishers, shrinking 80% margins toward 60% without any rug pull. The moat's strength is unclear; if the economics hold for five years, buying now would work well, and its buybacks have been smart. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

AppLovin is hated despite exceptional growth and profitability. In Q2 revenue grew 53% year over year with an 88.3% gross margin and a 77.7% operating margin. It also produced $869 million of free cash flow, a 100% FCF margin, and put $551 million of it into buybacks. x.com 

AppLovin is $200 cheaper and insiders still don't want to buy it. x.com