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Most AI chip companies are unlikely to be good investments over the next decade, because so much capital floods in that excess returns get competed away. Chipmakers need massive capital and constant reinvestment just to stay relevant, a treadmill rather than a compounding machine. Value concentrates only in customer relationships, lowest-cost production or toll-bridge bottlenecks. When returns miss high expectations, repricing is fast and brutal. Winners are uncertain, but most won't be. x.comÂ
