Long Microsoft and short Zoom is the most straightforward alpha trade around. The long leg gives exposure to Microsoft and OpenAI, called good companies, while the short leg is Zoom and Anthropic, dismissed as bad ones. x.comÂ
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Microsoft's OpenAI exposure is a very good reason to keep it alongside Anthropic exposure through Alphabet and Amazon. The prior thought of reducing or exiting Microsoft has given way to a tentative hold, with no plans to add for now. x.comÂ
Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com x.comÂ
Zoom's AI capabilities are very underappreciated: its wealth of enterprise context can support continued growth as AI enters meetings, workflows and customer interactions. Its AI talent is underappreciated too. Zoom shows its Decision API ahead of Microsoft and OpenAI offerings on average across five text decision benchmarks. Oppenheimer upgraded Zoom, citing strong AI-platform uptake, growing ARPU and retention. x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet may use AI-enabled Workspace and bundled pricing to win Office 365 subscribers. There is a real chance of conquest, while standalone OpenAI and Anthropic lack a competitive bundled-pricing response that could support their valuations. x.comÂ
AI's threat to incumbent tech makes SpaceX the preferred investment for the next decade. AI has begun taking business from Google, with Amazon and Apple next; Microsoft's 27% workforce reduction program signals desperation. x.comÂ
Zoom, Salesforce and SK Telecom offer double upside as proxies for Anthropic, which has filed an S-1 for a $1T+ IPO. Each holds billions of dollars of Anthropic exposure, plus vendor status and unique collaborations beyond a simple equity stake, yet the market prices none of them as AI beneficiaries. They are contrarian bets: Zoom's product has been relegated to a feature, Salesforce is the SaaSpocalypse poster boy, and SK Telecom is a telco just hit by a damning cyber attack. x.com x.comÂ
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
The private AI boom is already investable through listed stocks: Microsoft offers exposure to Anthropic, while Amazon and Alphabet offer exposure to OpenAI. x.comÂ
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.comÂ
These picks ride AI demand and digital scale. Reddit licenses conversation data to AI firms; Upstart supplies AI lending; Nu leads Latin American banking; Uber's autonomous-vehicle play is overlooked. Talen sells AI data-center power at premium rates; Dell ships AI servers; Microsoft pairs Azure with OpenAI. CrowdStrike secures enterprises; Duolingo expands its most-downloaded language app into math and music; Mastercard, one of two global card networks, takes a cut of trillions in payments. … Show more