Workday looks undervalued, with multiple valuation models putting intrinsic value near $165, a 15-16% discount, despite fears that AI will disrupt SaaS and weak enterprise software guidance from IBM. Its AI agents run at enterprise scale for over 4,000 clients, its 12-month subscription backlog grew more than 15%, and non-GAAP operating margin widened to 31.8% as management raised full-year profit guidance. x.com 

Workday at 3x sales is a travesty for a business of its quality, implying the market expects management to destroy value through poor capital allocation on top of AI fears. It could likely raise margins toward 30% without much customer impact, given bloat and complacency; the same factors that make it easy to catch up also make it easy to run more profitably. Venture valuations like Rippling's make more sense with Workday at 6-8x sales. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Workday's Q2 was totally fine, and the business is steadier than the bearish narrative implied. Growth relies on upselling a mature HCM and finance base, giving about 10-12% revenue growth, while margins have plenty of room to rise from 14% GAAP. AI is only 6% of revenue, so the business is unlikely to change much. The real risk is big companies shifting spending to hotter AI tools such as Claude. A sale anywhere below $250 would be insulting to shareholders, and 20x earnings power is not crazy. … Show more

AI is forcing a repricing of the enterprise software business model, and for ServiceNow and SAP the reset is not finished. Claude Managed Agents eased production AI deployment, ServiceNow's AI bundling raised monetization questions, and SAP warned of short-term pain like its cloud-migration margin squeeze. Multiples compress before new economics are understood, and most software still trades at a premium on GAAP P/E and EV/FCF ex-stock comp. Workday at 1.7x revenue hints at a floor. x.com 

Workday at about 3x trailing price-to-sales is about as close to a floor as the stock is likely to get. Its stock-based compensation is legitimately comical, a concern @WaterworldCapi1 also raised, but the valuation already looks floor-ish. x.com 

Workday is exposed because Anthropic has declared war on the enterprise: it hired Workday's CTO, who left after 11 months, and then posted that it is building its own Workday. AI got better and Anthropic started shipping like crazy, so buying the dip looks misguided. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Software stocks such as UiPath, HubSpot and ServiceNow are not about to be wiped out by AI, and a reported Silver Lake bid for Workday challenges that view. A seasoned tech investor willing to pay a huge sum, reportedly $50 billion, for a classic SaaS company fits poorly with the early-2026 thesis that AI would soon devalue enterprise software. The winners should become a control and automation layer linking AI agents, company data and workflows. The rally was partly short covering. x.com 

Software stocks probably have a floor as results challenge fears that AI agents will displace them. Since the June 22 momentum unwind, IGV is up 25% and the SOX index down 22%. Atlassian and Salesforce jumped on solid results, plus an Anthropic deal for Salesforce, and possible Silver Lake interest lifted Workday. A new bullish twist says agents will use software tools 10-100x more than humans. Whether fundamentals back the rally is still open; a likely Fed hike and weak September are risks. … Show more

Workday's 3.80% 2032 bonds trade below par mainly because their coupon was set in a lower-rate regime, not because of credit worries, so they can work through carry, roll and pull-to-par even without major spread tightening. They trade roughly in line with generic BBB spreads. x.com 

Large mission-critical software platforms such as Atlassian, Twilio, Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow and SAP are being lifted by AI, not destroyed by it. Datadog hit an all-time high on AI after Atlassian and Twilio accelerated. They can charge external AI agents a toll to access their systems of record, volume set to grow 100x in 12-24 months; sell their own agents; and expand into areas like security. AI resembles web to mobile, a tailwind for the best companies, though not all SaaS is safe. … Show more