Philip
Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor
Nokia's AI order book is driving analysts to raise price targets, a very bullish sign. BofA raised its target to $18.50 from $18 and reiterated Buy, calling worries about no full-year guidance raise misplaced since most of the quarter's orders land in 2027-2028. JPMorgan lifted its target to $21 from $14, roughly 50% upside, citing optical and AI/cloud acceleration and Nokia's own indium phosphide fab capacity. x.com
Nokia's AI pivot is showing up in the numbers. Q2 sales to AI and cloud customers more than doubled to €446 million, and segment orders hit €2.8 billion, about half converting within 12 months, with supply rather than demand now the constraint. IP Networks growth accelerated to 16% and Optical grew 20%, while comparable EPS of €0.07 rose 75%. The catches: €390 million of restructuring charges caused a reported operating loss, and free cash flow was negative €732 million. x.com
Nokia's AI and cloud orders are set to turn into revenue, with about half of Q2's EUR 2.8B intake expected to convert over the next 12 months. Its San Jose fab ramps in Q4, Pennsylvania test and packaging capacity expands 10x from Q3, and an NXP Chandler fab lease for indium phosphide chips starts in early 2027, all for demand expected in 2027-28. Nokia targets EUR 2.7-3.2B of comparable operating profit by 2028, up from EUR 2.1-2.6B guided for 2026. x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
Nokia's guidance raise was just an accounting shift, leaving a steep climb to its profit target. The bump to €2.1-2.6 billion came from moving two business lines into discontinued operations; JPMorgan asked why operating targets weren't raised. With about €735 million of H1 operating profit, Nokia needs €1.8-1.9 billion in H2 for the top end, so delays risk a miss. Memory and optics remain bottlenecks, and only about half of €2.8 billion in AI and Cloud orders converts within 12 months. x.com … Show more
Nokia's AI networking demand remains strong, and supply rather than demand is now its constraint. In Q2, AI and cloud customer revenue rose 105%, optical 20% and IP 16%. AI and cloud orders reached EUR 2.8B, up from EUR 1B in Q1, with about half expected to convert to revenue within 12 months. Management did not raise full-year guidance because supply of key parts such as indium phosphide devices and lasers limits delivery; as supply eases, the backlog should keep turning into revenue. x.com … Show more
Nokia is becoming a credible Western AI infrastructure pick, though only its Network Infrastructure half. The Infinera deal added in-house photonic chip fabs and hyperscaler access, Nvidia's $1B stake brings AI-RAN co-design, and the segment grew 23% in FY25 with EUR2.4B of AI and cloud orders. Licensing at near-100% gross margin and EUR4.9B of net cash add support, while Mobile Networks is a commoditizing anchor. Risks: AI capex peaking before Nokia wins optical share, and synergy slippage. … Show more
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia is a long, not a trade: a telecom giant with a fast-growing AI segment. AI & Cloud revenue rose 105% to €446M in Q2, about 9% of the group, and orders tripled to €2.8B, roughly half converting within 12 months. Optical reached 18% of revenue, lifting a sum-of-parts estimate to about $17.20, and buying NXP's Chandler plant for InP adds capacity. Headline results were weak and capacity constrains supply, so pure-play optical names may move faster near term. x.com x.com
Nokia is turning into an AI network powerhouse, and its fundamentals and technicals are aligning for a major move. Its $1 billion Nvidia partnership on AI-RAN and 6G is entering live commercial trials with operators this month, a Microsoft expansion links Nokia Data Suite with Microsoft Fabric, and it is converting a €2.8 billion AI order book while winning AI-native 5G deals with Taiwan Mobile and Chunghwa Telecom. Price has reclaimed its 50 and 200 EMAs; a move above 12 could reach 13+. x.com
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia is becoming one of the biggest AI-infrastructure pivots hiding in the market, with $20 next and $25 the top target. NVIDIA invested $1B in it, AI and cloud revenue grew 49% and optical networking 20%, and it is building AI infrastructure for 5G, 6G and edge AI. Insiders are still buying after a 140% run. A move over $17 should bring $20 fast, and over $20 opens $25. x.com x.com
