The S&P 500's elevated P/E masks concentration in just a few stocks, making index exposure less appealing than selective stock picking for risk and reward. Its P/E is well above the ten-year median; digging into individual constituents looks more sensible than buying all 500. x.com 

US index funds like the S&P 500 offer worse return per unit of volatility than momentum stocks. The index's low volatility lets investors use leverage, but in crises its black-swan swings get large, making risk control very hard for retail investors who lever up. With beta on both sides, there is little reason to hold the index; buying it without risk management returns far less than momentum stocks. x.com 

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF works as a foundation that doesn't depend on getting every stock pick right. It gives exposure to about 500 large US companies for a 0.03% annual expense ratio, roughly $3 a year per $10,000 invested. The plan is to keep adding to it over time and build individual stocks around it. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 looks set for a persistent uptrend after hitting a new record, which favors 3x leveraged exposure through TQQQ. After three choppy months, funds are refocusing on what matters while positioning and sentiment remain lopsided and weak, making a rise likelier than more chop and possibly another major bull run. Leveraged ETFs compound in steady uptrends but lose to friction in chop, as TQQQ's 136% gain against QQQ's 35% in April-May showed. Gulf tensions still need to end. x.com  x.com 

The AI-led S&P 500 peak will likely end somewhere between 2000 and the Nifty Fifty: painful, but not a 34-year Japan-style wait. Breadth is ugly, with record index highs while most stocks bleed; @RestlessCentaur notes over 70% of S&P 500 stocks are down more than 10%. Today's leaders trade around 30x forward earnings, while the 2000 and Japan tops were two to three times pricier. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Most retail investors who hold concentrated portfolios underperform a diversified benchmark like VOO. Depending on the study, typically 70-85% or more of those holding 10 or fewer stocks trail it most of the time, because of behavioral biases, higher volatility and missing the skewed winners that drive market returns. x.com 

Palantir at a $1 trillion valuation is very large compared with its peers and difficult to scale, and its business is hard to understand tangibly the way Google, Amazon or Meta's are. Selling it for broad S&P 500 exposure offers better diversification. x.com  x.com 

A portfolio all in the S&P 500 needs diversification, and a 5-10% allocation to international stocks does not hurt. Top add-ons are Avantis International Small Cap Value (AVDV), iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) and Avantis Emerging Markets (AVEM). International buys: AVDV, Amplify International Enhanced Dividend (IDVO), and Vanguard's Total International (VXUS), Developed Markets (VEA) and Emerging Markets (VWO) funds. For roughly S&P 500 plus developed markets in one fund, buy NTSD. x.com  x.com 

Most people should just buy the S&P 500, because sentiment and a lack of understanding make investors FOMO-chase the next hot trend, like semis now, and underperform the market. A post the author replies to notes that Adobe and ServiceNow, loved at 60x and 120x earnings, are down about 65% and now unwanted at 10x and 20x. x.com 

Invesco, the company behind QQQ with over $2.2T under management and about $6.4B in annual revenue, should benefit from the largest institutional investment in stock market history flowing into QQQ, SPY and similar funds. At a $10.7B market cap it still trades 50% below its 2000 high, for no good reason. The chart shows a three-decade base with clean institutional accumulation, last year's bullish sweep of two-year lows, and price defending key VWAP supports, setting up a possible breakout. … Show more