Micron is one of only three memory makers, and high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators is the move. x.comÂ
Philip
Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor
Micron's ordinary memory could see tighter supply because HBM consumes far more factory capacity than conventional DRAM. Meeting AI demand could thus extend Micron's opportunity beyond AI memory. x.comÂ
Micron benefits because AI needs more memory capacity and bandwidth. HBM growth and customer commitments support that view, while pricing and returns on new capacity will determine how durable it is. x.comÂ
Micron is too risky to own long term because memory is one of the most cyclical parts of the AI trade. Its margins are hard to forecast, so memory, like neoclouds, deserves a low multiple until it proves it can run a sustainable business through cycles, despite immense upside. Micron belongs in the too-hard pile: worth swing trading at opportune times, not holding long term or in real size. x.com x.comÂ
Micron is a buy on the AI buildout, more compute and rising memory demand, stated tongue in cheek. A roughly 5% drop back under $1,000, which @hamids could not explain, does not change the buying. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.comÂ
Inflation, rising rates, Chinese competition and rising AI-related financial costs are pressuring the memory market. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix look exposed; waiting for the cycle to turn. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's memory leadership remains intact because it is sold out into 2027. A red day does not change those fundamentals; anyone arguing it has topped must identify which part of demand breaks and when. x.comÂ
Each new AI wave is lifting demand across Micron's HBM, DRAM and storage products. Micron said training, inference, agentic AI and physical AI raise memory needs; the stock still trades at about 5x next-twelve-month earnings, leaving its growth story just getting started. x.comÂ
Micron is a cyclical, and if DRAM sells at cash cost at any point in the next 15 years, which is likely over that span, owners will be in deep trouble. The historical playbook is to buy memory when it looks bleak and sell when it looks rosy. When take-or-pay contracts showed up in past industries, prices often fell within 18 months and the stocks dropped as spot prices fell. @BeenThereCap counters that Micron is on pace to earn its market cap in cash within eight years. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.comÂ