Surmount
Automated Investing & Portfolio Tools
The CLARITY Act is genuinely bullish for Bitcoin and crypto long-term, even though Bitcoin fell after the Senate Banking Committee passed it 15-9 with bipartisan support. Committee approval is not law: the bill must still merge with the Agriculture Committee's version, win 60 Senate votes and pass a full House vote, and an ethics provision on officials profiting from crypto is unresolved. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is drawing sustained institutional accumulation, with more capital still to come. Per CoinShares data, crypto funds took in $858M last week, the sixth straight positive week and $4.7B over six weeks, with bitcoin taking $706M while short-BTC funds saw their largest outflow of 2026. A Coinbase/EY-Parthenon survey found 73% of institutions plan to raise digital asset exposure from an average 1% allocation. The CLARITY Act still needs Senate clearance, so its passage is not certain. x.comÂ
Bitcoin has asymmetric upside into tomorrow's Clarity Act vote, with odds at 50/50: passage would likely bring a god candle, with on-chain assets following, while failure would be a nothingburger since passage isn't priced in. Everyone is de-risking ahead of the vote. The bull market is in its early innings. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is coiling for a move toward $84,000 ahead of the Senate's September 15 vote on the CLARITY Act. Passage would cement Bitcoin as a digital commodity under the CFTC and complete the current accumulation phase, after some more healthy consolidation in the $78,000-80,000 zone. The Fed rate decision follows on September 16. x.comÂ
XRP and bitcoin face a crowded sideline as the CLARITY Act crypto bill stalls, with passage now more likely pushed to 2027. Senate Majority Leader Thune skipped the bill's cloture vote, filing on college sports instead, and no vote is coming before recess. Senator Elizabeth Warren says corruption, consumer protection and national-security concerns must be resolved first, calling the bill an industry giveaway. Adoption, though, does not stop because of politics. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Passage of the CLARITY Act would make the crypto buyer base fully institutional: stickier, longer-horizon and far less swayed by volatility. That supports stability and mass adoption, pushing bitcoin, ether, Zcash and Hyperliquid higher. x.comÂ
Ether and other altcoins that benefit from clearer rules could keep outperforming ahead of the CLARITY Act, because clearer US rules on tokens and crypto businesses would give investors more confidence. As with the long wait for bitcoin ETF approval, anticipation alone can drive a rally before passage, and strength in LIT and ETH against bitcoin suggests traders are betting on good news. A delay could hurt short term, but if passage still looks likely, the anticipation trade should persist. … Show more
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's refusal to fall despite an ugly macro setup suggests far more sidelined liquidity and risk appetite than headlines imply. BTC reclaimed $80K even as the 10-year yield moved back toward 5%, the Fed hiked 25 bp and the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate; regulatory progress and ETF inflows don't fully explain it. The market may already be looking past tightening. The key question is whether Kevin Warsh's Fed pauses after this hike, signaling conditions have stopped tightening. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
Circle and bitcoin stand to gain most if the Clarity Act passes, because it gives stablecoins legal clarity for the first time so banks, institutions and funds can legally enter. Stablecoins in circulation top $300B, up from $200B a year ago; Circle's USDC holds 20-25% of the market and Tether, which owns treasuries, gold and bitcoin, 55-60%. The industry wants it signed by July 4, with Polymarket odds near 60%. Banks, with $6T+ of deposits paying almost no interest, are lobbying against it. … Show more
