FICO still looks like one of the best opportunities right now, based on estimated EPS growth of 18% a year and a terminal P/E of 25. x.comÂ
Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
FICO is trading at its lowest valuation of the decade, about 13x forward earnings for what is essentially a duopoly, which is attractive. @thejmkane counters that it is no longer really a monopoly, but a duopoly at 13x is not so bad. x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac's risk/reward is starting to look enticing at current levels. If it reaches about $75 of EPS by 2029 and trades at 20x earnings, that implies a stock price of about $1,500. x.comÂ
Fair Isaac still looks far too expensive at 90x free cash flow, even after a 75% fall in a monopoly. Even if FCF doubled, the price would equal 45 years of cash flow, and doubling at FICO's size is much less plausible after it raised prices 17 times and angered customers. The test is whether the company can earn the price paid within an investor's lifetime under generous growth assumptions. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac's selloff looks technically overdone and will probably push the company to double down on buybacks, making it a short-term bounce trade. The longer-term case is less compelling. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac is among the stocks worth owning. x.comÂ
FICO's moat is starting to get disrupted, and the premium multiple holders once defended has not held up. Two years ago the stock traded at 80x EPS on the argument that a high-quality compounder with a moat deserved it; that multiple has since compressed by about 80%. FICO would need to rise 280% to regain its all-time high, and there is a good chance it never does. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fair Isaac looks insanely cheap at its lowest P/E in well over a decade, with fundamentals that still look beautiful. Per @stock_analysisx, the derating follows the US government's move to end FICO's mortgage scoring monopoly, leaving the stock at its lowest P/E since 2013. x.com x.comÂ
FICO, AppLovin, Intuitive Surgical and Palantir are among the most undervalued S&P 500 stocks: each is down 40-60% from its high while EPS keeps rising double digits or more. The declines reflect multiple compression from higher yields, rotation into memory and hardware, and priced-for-perfection expectations. FICO's platform ARR rose 62%, AppLovin runs an 84% EBITDA margin, Intuitive's revenue is 85% recurring and Palantir's revenue rose 93%. Risks include Palantir's 40x forward sales. x.com … Show more
Fair Isaac is still overpriced at 19x earnings even after falling 60% this year. Never overpay. x.comÂ
Pagaya may be one of the cheapest stocks relative to its growth, at about 12.5x earnings after earnings grew over 4x in 2025, with management guiding for roughly 50% more earnings growth in 2026. Revenue still grew 26% last year; the selloff reflects business-model risk in the current macro, and net income outpacing revenue reflects margin expansion rather than a topping business. FICO is safer but has far less upside. A significant position depends on a few factors still to be resolved. x.com … Show more