Sachin Sharma
Investor, 22+ Years in Oil/Gas/Energy, SLB & MBB Background
Rocket Lab is unlikely to fail because a space company with a pedigree of successful launches has never gone under. Many space ventures have gone bankrupt, but space engineering is so tough that a proven launcher effectively gets a government put. That answers the claim, relayed by @RealMattMoney from @KrisPatel99, that Rocket Lab will burn to the ground and won't be profitable for 5-10 years. x.com
Rocket Lab's move from small-satellite launches toward the larger Neutron rocket gives its space-infrastructure story room to grow. It could be a monster buy right now; the attached chart shows latest quarterly revenue of $234 million. x.com
Rocket Lab is underestimated as a launch company when it is building a broader space infrastructure business, where satellites, components, spacecraft systems and national-security demand could matter as much as launches. It just signed its largest commercial Electron deal by mission count, 20 launches for Synspective from 2028 to 2031, per Wall St Engine, pushing its launch backlog above 100 missions. x.com
Rocket Lab's government awards and backlog look priced in, while the costs of Neutron do not. Its space-beta monopoly has ended with SpaceX's listing, and it needs to max out R&D to accelerate Neutron before its maiden flight. A brand-new rocket, a new methalox engine and a new launch site burning more money mean weak earnings the market has apparently not priced. x.com x.com
Jan Zuazo Pfingsten
Thematic Investor, Physical Scarcity & AI Infrastructure, Primary-Source Research
Rocket Lab is a long-term hold on its great vision, team and industry, and hard rockets are not disruptable, so time is on the investor's side. Rocket Lab says NASA has selected Electron for three 2027 launches to deploy its PolSIR and TSIS-2 Sun and Earth science missions, after almost a decade of reliable, precise, on-demand launches for NASA. x.com
Rocket Lab will be a good investment because it does much more than launch rockets, though AST SpaceMobile looks like the better one. x.com
Rocket Lab's only 'moat' was Neutron, and its reported launch delay now amounts to cancellation for the investment case. The quoted report puts its inaugural launch in 2027; $2.99 is floated as a possible share price. x.com
Rocket Lab's real strength is vertical integration, with launch, satellite manufacturing, space systems and defense contracts under one roof. Neutron matters most: if it succeeds, it could become the only serious alternative to SpaceX in the medium-to-heavy launch class and take the company to an entirely different scale. The market does not fully appreciate this optionality. x.com
Rocket Lab is one of the very few public space companies with a real chance to compete alongside SpaceX, in a trillion-dollar space economy with room for several major winners as launch demand explodes. It posted a record quarter with a $2.2 billion backlog, won a $30 million Anduril contract, signed its largest launch agreement, was picked with Raytheon for the Space Force's Space-Based Interceptor program, and is acquiring Motiv Space Systems. x.com
Rocket Lab's delayed Neutron first flight pushes out a key part of its planned launch capacity. Flight one has moved to 2027, at least 1.5 years later than the previously indicated timing; the lack of clearer guidance is frustrating. The stock could fall 50% if it breaks key support, though that downside is conditional. x.com x.com x.com
A commercial-launch bottleneck is good news for Rocket Lab. Christine Ji reports that a SpaceX launch shortage is fueling a $100 billion wave of investment in space infrastructure and applications. x.com
