Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's satellite network, which connects directly to regular phones, is starting to turn into revenue. Q2 revenue was $31.5 million, up from $1.2 million a year earlier, and it reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $150-200 million. It has 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit with about 45 targeted by early 2027, around $1.3 billion of contracted revenue, and roughly 60 carrier partners including AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile, the poor man's Starlink, may be the best Artemis II play in the market now. It has the best forward growth numbers among space stocks. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is still treated like a concept despite $2.34B in cash, more than $1.2B already contracted before full commercialization begins, and a target of $1B in revenue by 2027. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile still has incredible upside even after subtracting mobile carriers' share of direct-to-device revenue, which could easily be 50%. A quoted model of 750 million subscribers paying $5 a month implies $45 billion of annual revenue before that split, so the profits won't all go to AST. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart is curling higher on heavy volume to reclaim its moving averages, a setup that could push it past its previous all-time high around $100-$102 and run up into the SpaceX IPO. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's ~$20B valuation prices in years of growth despite only $31M in revenue last quarter, leaving expectations vulnerable to an unwind even as the business progresses. Space communications remains attractive long term, but a sustained loss of $50.70 could deepen the correction toward $19-35; that move is not certain. Holding support and reclaiming $60-66 by month-end would improve the outlook. A 10-15% market correction could also cause a selloff without implying business failure. … Show more
AST SpaceMobile's roughly $22 billion market cap leaves a large gap to its $1.1 trillion addressable market, the global mobile wireless market, and that gap is the opportunity. x.comÂ