Bottleneck Capital
Long/Short Investor, Technology, Media & Telecom
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10 million open-market purchase is a strong vote of confidence against the robotaxi fear trade. He bought 141,000 shares at $70.96 outside a 10b5-1 plan, his largest buy ever and first in four years, and his three earlier purchases are all in the money. He has the best seat on autonomous economics, while the stock sits 30% below its highs, near a 52-week low, at 15x earnings. x.comÂ
Uber's value lies in being every autonomous-vehicle supplier's channel, because permitted driverless supply, not AV tech, stays scarce and grows city by city. Waymo, at 500K paid rides a week in 13 cities, still sells through Uber's app in Austin and Atlanta, which it would not do unless Uber's demand density were worth something. Uber works with Waymo, Baidu, Wayve and Zoox, targeting 15 AV cities by year end. That works while there are several suppliers, not once one stops needing a channel. x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi just bought about $10 million of stock, 141,000 shares, a strong insider signal that now is a good time to accumulate. The stock rose 2.08% in a sea of red. x.comÂ
Uber has big long-term secular problems, enough to make even CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's $10M token insider buy a moment to consider shorting, though actually shorting is not recommended. Beyond the Waymo and robotaxi threat, an AI agent that constantly checks every app for the best price would hurt Uber, consistently the highest-priced ride service. Uber would need to lower prices, and it lacks the tech stack. x.com x.comÂ
Uber's CEO buying $10M of stock, days after its president bought over $5M, is a meaningful vote of confidence: wealthy people do not set $15M on fire for fun, and insiders buy for one reason. That matters amid the debate over Uber's position as autonomous vehicles arrive. Buying works as long as there is no autonomous-vehicle duopoly, which looks very unlikely. x.com x.comÂ
Uber's CEO buying $10M of shares is a massive insider vote of confidence in the stock. x.comÂ
Uber's valuation is out of balance with its fundamental trajectory over the medium term, and the long-term thesis is less convincing than it once was. It became a cash-flow machine sooner than expected, but the past couple of years have been a grind. It is a hold now and a sell if it reaches the top of its technical channel around $100. x.com x.comÂ
Uber trades as if its entire business is already doomed by robotaxis, even though it is doing extremely well right now. The setup resembles software stocks after the AI scare: investors assumed software was finished, then many of those stocks rallied 50% when reality proved less disastrous than the narrative. Robotaxis may eventually disrupt Uber, or they may not. x.comÂ
Uber's network effects could make it the app robotaxi fleets need to keep their cars fully operational. It is one of the best platforms on earth and a five-year buy at today's valuation, with opportunity too compelling to pass up despite shares falling about 25% in the past year on robotaxi fears. Bookings grew 24% last quarter and trailing free cash flow exceeded $10 billion. Waymo and Tesla could choose to bypass Uber; Waymo already runs its own app in most of its cities. x.comÂ
Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The market is sleeping on Uber, and the CEO's purchase of $10M of stock with his own money backs that view. The buy comes as shares retest their breakout from a massive descending wedge after weeks of bullish RSI divergence. If bulls defend this area into the weekend, the target is $167. x.comÂ
