Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com  x.com 

Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AppLovin's economics and margins may be almost too good to last, because unusually good economics act as a flashing red light inviting competition. Rivals could gradually raise acquisition costs, bid harder for supply or push AppLovin to share more with advertisers and publishers, shrinking 80% margins toward 60% without any rug pull. The moat's strength is unclear; if the economics hold for five years, buying now would work well, and its buybacks have been smart. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Meta, Robinhood, Amazon, Nvidia and Uber are strong-conviction holdings with theses simple enough to explain to an eight-year-old, per Peter Lynch's test. Meta has 3.6B daily users, leads advertising and offers easy-to-use AI. Robinhood is building the future of finance across stocks, crypto and banking. Amazon is practically an ETF spanning e-commerce, ads, streaming, AWS and robotics. Nearly every company uses Nvidia's hardware. Uber is a cash-flow machine dominating ride-sharing and delivery. … Show more

Company success largely depends on capable management, and leaders obsessed with realizing their vision make failure extremely difficult. This is one of the main reasons for adding Zeta Global, Oscar Health, Hims & Hers, Aduro, AST SpaceMobile, SoFi, Alibaba, AMD, Nvidia, Airbnb and Dell, but not Tesla or Robinhood. x.com 

AppLovin faces a long repair after its trend broke, even though its fundamentals rank in the top 30 of 2,000 stocks. Shares fell almost 60% from above $745 to near $315 after an August report, with revenue up 53% and an 84% EBITDA margin, narrowly missed its guidance midpoint, cracking the endless-beat assumption behind its multiple. Price sits below a falling 200-day average, and holders waiting for break-even must clear first. If the trend turns, 16.8x earnings for 37% growth would be rare. … Show more

Founder-led companies tend to deliver more growth, innovation, direction and profit, with longer tenure and structure, so they are the ones to own. Nvidia under Jensen Huang, Tesla under Elon Musk and MercadoLibre under Marcos Galperin have returned thousands of percent, alongside Palantir, Rocket Lab, Nebius, IREN, Strategy, Lemonade, Ondas, Robinhood, CrowdStrike, Spotify, Airbnb, Dell and The Trade Desk. Some are just getting started, while others have been around for years. x.com 

Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Dell is heavily overearning heading into a two-sigma melt-up, leaving the stock exposed to a reversal. x.com 

Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, AMD, ServiceNow, Microsoft and ASML are strong enough to serve as decade-long cornerstone holdings. Amazon has AWS, ads, marketplace, Prime and logistics reinforcing each other. Meta reaches about 3.6B daily users with an AI-improved ad engine. Broadcom pairs chip infrastructure with embedded software, both cash-rich. AMD wins with EPYC, Instinct and ROCm. ServiceNow and Microsoft are deeply embedded in daily business, and ASML alone makes EUV systems at scale. x.com  … Show more