GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Sivers Semiconductors is already load-bearing in the AI optical stack through its Ayar Labs relationship, more like a fiber connector inside the chip than a swappable cable. An ASML acquisition, as @michael_rigoni speculates, would only determine which flag flies over that dependency. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors could re-rate before any fund can even file if its Nasdaq listing is approved, because its float is pure retail with no institutional floor. Per a post the author replies to, citing Fintel, zero US institutions report 13F, 13D or 13G positions in the stock, partly because most can't hold a Stockholm-primary listing. x.comÂ
Sivers is less exposed to tighter AI financing because its 700M SEK raise funds a buildout largely reliant on external foundries. It is qualifying with Ayar, Jabil, GlobalFoundries and O-Net for potential tier-one hyperscaler pluggable, CPO and NPO deployments. Higher rates may strain neoclouds needing billions for GPUs, but optical content and aggregate demand should still rise even if hyperscaler AI capex falls, especially as new players start qualification. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors has a real, qualified design win with GlobalFoundries, answering short-seller doubts about its AI pipeline. GlobalFoundries is integrating Sivers' indium-phosphide laser arrays into its silicon photonics platform and SCALE co-packaged optics engines, the high-bandwidth, low-power interconnects AI clusters need. @MoodyWriter13 notes it is not a supply contract and has no delivery timeline or committed volume, but as a design win it is a big deal. x.com x.comÂ
China's already-shipping CW lasers make Sivers' Chinese pluggable pipeline depend on price and qualification speed. Yuanjie says its 70/100mW chips, the classes Sivers lists, are in continuous large-volume delivery. It guides Q3 revenue up 265-293% and expects new capacity from end-2026 to early 2027, before Sivers' Q4 2027 Glasgow expansion. Yuanjie's 120/300/400mW parts remain in customer validation; Western hyperscaler qualification is probably where Sivers still has time. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
POET Technologies and Sivers Semiconductors work as a pair trade, not an either/or. POET is the architecture bet: its optical engines and interposer platform plug into Celestial AI, which Marvell just spent $2B on and which feeds Nvidia; if that stack becomes standard, it is a 10x story. Sivers is the bottleneck beneath it, with InP laser arrays inside Ayar Labs' SuperNova. Every CPO roadmap, pluggable and Celestial engine needs a light source, and that source is Sivers. x.comÂ
Credo's leading AEC position and vertical integration keep its optics thesis bullish despite SpaceX moving away from 1.6T AECs. That shift is a genuine risk, but xAI has been in Credo's AEC ecosystem the longest, which could support ZeroFlap optics and its telemetry software. Credo's VCSEL-based ALCs were still ramping toward 2027, giving it another route as customers move to transceivers. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' AI optics rally prices in more than its photonics business has shown. About 75% of revenue is still wireless mmWave. Its 50-75mW CW lasers suit 400G and 800G but trail tier-1 rivals, making it a tier-2 spillover supplier like Applied Optoelectronics. Its small, old Glasgow fab has $50-150 million of potential laser revenue, with no sign of major expansion. Its multi-wavelength laser arrays for CPO are pre-revenue as Nvidia and Broadcom build their own. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors is crossing from an engineering and NRE model to a product-led component model, a shift that earns very different multiples. FY2025 revenue rose 25% to SEK304.1m, product revenue reached SEK85.7m (about 28% of sales), and it entered 2026 with a $453m non-binding pipeline. Wireless is the nearer-term, more de-risked engine; photonics for AI interconnects carries larger long-duration upside. The risk is that losses and negative cash flow dilute equity before products scale. … Show more
The market does not understand the potential of Sivers Semiconductors' collaboration with POET Technologies. Per @aleabitoreddit, POET's confirmation of "far in excess" of purchase orders, on top of its Marvell supplier relationships, translates materially to Sivers laser production, and markets have not fully priced in either. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors lacks evidence that it beats its competitors. At Computex, Ayar Labs treated Sivers as one option among several rather than something it relies on exclusively, and no third-party or authoritative data yet shows Sivers is superior to rivals. x.com x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' new GlobalFoundries collaboration, combined with a bounce off its 20-day EMA near 59 SEK, points to another move higher. Per @ren_stocks, Sivers' laser arrays will be integrated into GlobalFoundries' silicon photonics reference designs and its SCALE co-packaged light-engine platform, putting its lasers across CPO, LPO and other data center interconnects through a tier-1 foundry. x.comÂ
