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GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

30 Sep, 10:17Latest

Broadwind is priced at 0.6x sales, about $96M, though US heavy-gearing capacity is slow to add, as heat-treat lines and qualified machinists take years. After selling the Abilene tower plant, it is purely a power-generation gearing and fabrication business. Q2 continuing revenue rose 67% to $24.3M, backlog rose 93%, book-to-bill hit 1.5x and net debt is $5M. The risk: trailing revenue of about $140M is still falling and orders are lumpy, so backlog must convert before old wind revenue rolls off. x.com

BWEN

25 Sep, 16:06

Broadwind owns one of the few US plants able to make large custom gearing at scale, and new power-generation demand must wait in line because heavy gear capacity takes years to build and qualify. Q2 continuing revenue rose 67% to $24.3M and orders 68% to $35.2M, at about 0.6x EV/Sales with roughly $5M of net debt. The risk: this $101M micro-cap has declining trailing revenue of about $140M, one soft order quarter resets the story, and power-gen may not refill the wind gap fast enough. x.com

BWEN

Patient Investor

Real Estate Developer, Public & Private Equity Investor Since 2016

12 May

BWEN

Broadwind is turning from a low-margin, lumpy wind tower maker into a precision-components platform for power generation and critical infrastructure, and the Q1 revenue miss masks that pivot. The wind exit completes September 5, 2026. Industrial Solutions backlog hit a record $43.3M on gas turbine demand with 1.6x book-to-bill; Gearing orders rose 66% and backlog 107% to $30.5M. About $300M of NOLs and 1.7x net leverage give room for bolt-on acquisitions into 2027. x.com

Kairos

Stock Research

13 Sep

BWEN

Broadwind looks cheap, and natural gas turbines should be a multi-year tailwind. Two concerns remain open: the 2024 dip, which calls for a closer look at the financials and the cyclicality of its exposure, and margins that are still low. x.com

Serenity

AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader

5 May

PLPC

AMSC

CLF

American Superconductor, Cleveland-Cliffs and Preformed Line Products are critical US infrastructure compounders, not parabolic growers, backed by Defense Production Act support for domestic grid manufacturing. The action declared a national energy emergency over the grid supply chain, authorizing federal funding, purchase commitments and faster expansion. Hammond Power Solutions shows the demand: revenue of C$264M beat C$236.3M estimates and backlog rose 94.6%, a leading indicator. x.com

Bottleneck Capital

Long/Short Investor, Technology, Media & Telecom

31 Aug

HWM

ENR.DE

Howmet and Siemens Energy should benefit from SpaceX's turbine push, not suffer from it. Musk says SpaceX could pull gas turbine production forward by up to 18 months, which means more blades needed sooner; assembly was never the bottleneck, so the single-crystal casting queue gets longer. Turbines are sold out into 2029, and PJM capacity cleared at $269.92/MW-day versus $28.92 two auctions ago, so turbine demand would be the last to fall. Chromalloy PMA parts do not qualify for frame turbines. … Show more

Jay Yoon

Founder & Portfolio Manager of Summit Ridge Capital Management

21 Sep

PSIX

Power Solutions International's weak first half looks like a timing air pocket, not a deteriorating data center opportunity. Import data suggest it received about 20 large Weichai engines in August, multiples of its January-July total, consistent with management's view that 2H revenue will exceed 1H. At 1H margins, 2H EPS could be about $2, or $4 annualized, only 10-12x earnings. The Generac-Amazon deal validates the platform of Weichai, ~46% owner of PSIX, with US data center buyers. x.com

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

6 Aug

PSIX

Power Solutions International's large gas and diesel gensets for prime power are a big opportunity that is not priced in. Results improved after a disastrous Q1, though gross-margin guidance of 25% is below historical levels and management could not explain the gap versus Generac. x.com

Leandro

Equity Analyst at Best Anchor Stocks

24 Jul

MEDP

Medpace's feared FY2027 revenue cliff will likely be avoided because its pipeline is filling up despite two quarters of weak book-to-bill. Backlog is a poor leading indicator of revenue, partly because Medpace also keeps a pre-backlog of business awarded but not yet certain to reach revenue. x.com

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