Intuit could be an interesting value play with its price-to-free-cash-flow approaching 10, even as AI intensifies competition. x.comÂ
Techquity
Technology Investor, Fundamental Research
Intuit's dominant market positions, recurring revenue, high switching costs and exceptional cash generation make it a world-class compounder, and the market's AI fears may be offering it at a discount. x.comÂ
Intuit looks unusually cheap at 15x forward earnings for a high-quality software compounder. It offers about 15% expected EPS growth, 0.46x net debt to EBITDA and 22% net margins, a combination that rarely trades this low. The open question is whether the market is right to fear AI disruption. x.comÂ
Intuit risks becoming the example of AI commoditizing software, as AI and agents increasingly answer tax and bookkeeping questions instantly, cheaply or for free, removing the need for a costly middle layer. Its large paying base means AI probably won't crush it immediately, but pricing power and users could get squeezed. Its lofty multiples are likely over; it won't go to zero and could still be decent, but it is down 54% this year in a nasty stage-4 downtrend below its 200-day average. x.com … Show more
Intuit is well placed for a software rally, with EPS likely to accelerate and its P/E multiple to recover. Starting a business has never been easier, and those businesses need accounting software. They won't vibe code their own, since it is a small cost that must be tax compliant and linked to governments for automatic filing, and vibe-coded rivals risk security breaches. Businesses are also subscribing to AI features inside accounting software, such as automatic cost classification. x.comÂ
Intuit is a favored stock, ranked fourth on a list of picks. x.comÂ
Intuit is not very compelling at about 14.5x normalized 2027 EPS after stock-based compensation; maybe it deserves 18x, though there is probably little realistic downside from here. x.comÂ
Intuit's growing business platform makes pricing the whole firm like slowing TurboTax too pessimistic. It is 54% of revenue, grew 18% in FY26 and is guided to 13-14% in FY27; 15% growth in revenue per customer shows switching costs, though new-customer targets are missed. At ~14x FY27 earnings including stock comp (16x GAAP), shares imply low-single-digit long-term cash flow growth. If the platform grows ~10% and consumer stays flat, EPS should grow ~8-10% a year, beating the index even at 12x. … Show more
Intuit looks attractively valued, trading at 17x earnings while growing 11%. x.com x.comÂ
Intuit will survive AI, but its products are among the most vulnerable to it, and AI should take a massive chunk of its business. It relied heavily on customers staying for convenience, and it has already admitted customer spending is tightening. Revenue growth has slowed to 10%, and the 17% staff layoff looks like an effort to offset lost future business. It may not be a terrible buy here, but it won't return near historic valuations, and better SaaS options exist. x.comÂ
Intuit is a high-quality compounding software business worth owning while sentiment is weak, thanks to ecosystem advantages across TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks and Mailchimp and AI layered into products with deep customer relationships. It reported strong Q2 FY2026 results and reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $20.997B-$21.186B, about 12-13% growth, with 14-15% non-GAAP EPS growth. x.comÂ