Palo Alto Networks looks expensive, and a material GAAP write-down is a real risk. Goodwill now makes up 47% of total assets and 88% of stockholders' equity, and it likely overpaid for CyberArk, making an impairment highly probable. Organic growth is about 14%, yet the stock trades above 17x next-twelve-month EV to revenue. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks is an expensive stock for the profit growth it will deliver over the next couple of years, despite another strong quarter and a promising annual guide. x.com  x.com 

Palo Alto Networks was unjustly sold off on overblown AI concerns, when AI adoption should actually be a tailwind. Its Next-Gen Security ARR has tripled over three years. x.com 

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks need 50%-plus growth to deliver even a 10% IRR over a realistic horizon, but almost no conceivable case gets them there. They feel as dumb as Zoom and Peloton in 2021. Even if revenue doubles over four to five years, Palo Alto would still trade at 10x revenue and CrowdStrike at 20x, leaving little prospect of a real IRR; Palo Alto is growing in the teens today. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Palo Alto Networks' valuation makes little sense: FY2027 guidance of $4.19 EPS at the high end implies only 9.7% growth, yet the stock trades at 85x FY2027 EPS, an 8.7x PEG ratio. By contrast, Credo guides revenue up at least 85%, implying 85% EPS growth at 28x, a 0.33x PEG, though connectivity and cybersecurity aren't directly comparable. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks wants every AI agent's credentials routed through it, and whoever brokers the keys sits inline on every action a CISO wants to control. It is the only firewall vendor that also owns a top privileged-access stack. Last quarter revenue grew 34% at a 70% gross margin, with $4.11 billion of free cash flow and net cash. The price is steep at 81.2x forward earnings and 28.2x sales, leaving no cushion if cloud platforms credential agents natively. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks at 21x forward sales is too expensive for 17% pro-forma growth, despite BTIG's view that it is worth more than the current price. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks is the most overvalued cybersecurity stock by a mile, at about 25x forward revenue while growing only 15% organically. Anything above 10x revenue is hard to justify, let alone 20x. Worse, the "Mythos moment" that sent cyber valuations vertical has not yet shown up in its results. x.com  x.com 

Palo Alto Networks has strong secular tailwinds as AI adoption drives platform market-share gains, so the winner should be left to run. Morgan Stanley named it a sector top pick, raised its target to $410 from $394 with an Overweight rating, and cited underestimated enterprise spending consolidation. The stock trades near 52-week highs. x.com 

Palo Alto Networks is too expensive at 21x sales and 79x forward earnings for a company expected to grow only about 20% over the next few years. Cybersecurity matters more as AI advances, but even a good company has to be bought at the right price, which is why the stock fell even after a big earnings beat. x.com