GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Walmart looks expensive against its earnings at $110.12. It trades at 39x earnings and 34x next year's, while the industry usually gets 18x. Applying 18x to next year's $3.28 EPS, give or take 12%, gives a fair range of $51.95 to $66.12, putting the stock 67% above fair, with a PEG of 4.24. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Walmart's 43.28x earnings multiple makes the stock impossible to buy for a long time. Its historical median is 31.13x, and even at 30x it would not be attractive. x.comÂ
Walmart's valuation is too high for a grocery and household retailer. At about 36 times next year's earnings, it exceeds its five-year norm of 25 and the roughly 20 times this business should command; Target trades near 16 times. Stay away from Walmart here. x.comÂ
Walmart may be setting up for a big bounce, with its pullback matching the pattern of its last two bottoms. The stock is down about 25% from its all-time high, as it was before both prior bottoms, which also showed RSI divergence. Its forward P/E has fallen from near 40 earlier this year to a more respectable 31, and it is holding just above the psychological $100 level near a prior breakout area. x.comÂ
Walmart does not deserve 40x forward earnings, especially with comparable sales growth at its slowest in over six years. Per @negligible_cap, the stock fell 6% on decelerating comps and could eventually have a Target- or Nike-style moment as investors realize it can't hold that multiple forever. x.com x.comÂ
Walmart's 41x P/E looks hard to justify when gas prices are going through the roof. x.comÂ
Walmart looks like a safe-haven play after falling about 25% from its highs, with UBS expecting record Q2 sales when it reports next week. The chart is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a 12-point target from the neckline. x.comÂ
Walmart's stock has compounded at 18% a year while its EPS grows less than 5%, which raises the question of how that return can be sustained. x.comÂ
Walmart's valuation looks like a bubble about to pop: investors pay 37x earnings for 6% revenue growth. Amazon is a more direct comparison and is way cheaper with roughly three times faster growth. x.com x.comÂ
Walmart has the strongest fundamentals in retail, with $725B+ of revenue, exploding e-commerce and market-share gains while rivals bleed. It is a defensive cash-printing machine in a shaky economy, and analysts rate it a moderate buy with $140+ targets. x.comÂ
Walmart still trades at 44 times earnings even as it heads for its worst day since 2023. Per @StockSavvyShay, the drop came after Walmart warned that US consumers are feeling pressure and that persistent cost pressures could bring somewhat higher retail price inflation in Q2 and the second half. x.com x.comÂ
