GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Camtek is cheap against its earnings. At $146.79 it trades at 31x earnings, while chip-equipment makers usually get 38x. Fair value is $160.15–$203.82, or 38x next year's $4.79 a share give or take 12%, leaving the stock 8% under the low end. The read leans on the forecast, with forward earnings 154% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
Camtek's AI inspection orders are now turning into sales as customers expand chip production and need tools to catch defects. Preliminary Q3 revenue of $160m is roughly 20% above Q2, with $179m forecast for Q4. x.com
Accelerating earnings mean ASML is not expensive right now. It trades at 24x forward earnings and 19x forward EV/EBITDA. x.com
Broadcom looks cheap at 22x forward earnings after guiding to $115B-plus from one segment in FY2027 and $230B-plus in FY2028, without acquisitions, while the stock barely moved. The cycle is expected to support nearly 100% EPS growth over the next two years, so a cyclical discount is probably already priced in if those estimates are even remotely accurate. x.com x.com x.com
Lam Research's valuation is scary, at 73 times earnings, a PEG ratio of 2.16 and 82 times free cash flow. x.com
Applied Materials' record revenue and Q4 guidance show strong AI equipment demand, and the median analyst target implies 42.9% upside over the next 12 months. x.com
MKS looks undervalued at 13.5x estimated 2027 earnings, a multiple that is probably too low. x.com
Semiconductor equipment makers such as Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research look like shorts, a view Michael Burry now shares: per @zerohedge, Burry says he shorted Applied Materials, along with Tesla, Nvidia and, for the first time, Caterpillar. x.com
ASML's valuation does not make sense at 45-50x forward earnings unless estimates are too low by around 2x. It has always had pricing power but chosen not to exercise it; that may change, but if it does not, the multiple is hard to justify relative to other opportunities. x.com x.com
ASML is an amazing business, but it is pricey right now. x.com
