Semiconductor equipment makers such as Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research look like shorts, a view Michael Burry now shares: per @zerohedge, Burry says he shorted Applied Materials, along with Tesla, Nvidia and, for the first time, Caterpillar. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100 already effectively prices in a severe semiconductor recession. QQQ trades at about 20 times 2027 EPS versus a 10-year average forward P/E near 25; halving 2027 estimates for Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Lam Research and Applied Materials would lift that only to 24.5. If the market instead traded at 20 times in that scenario, downside would be about 20%. Capex seems unlikely to be cut materially unless growth at AI labs such as Anthropic decelerates dramatically. x.com 

Lam Research is cheap against its earnings, trading at 30x next year's earnings when chip-equipment makers usually get 38x. Fair value is $392.57 to $499.63, or 38x next year's $11.74 EPS give or take 12%, so at $347.49 it trades 11% below where fair starts. The valuation leans on the forecast, with forward EPS 100% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Accelerating earnings mean ASML is not expensive right now. It trades at 24x forward earnings and 19x forward EV/EBITDA. x.com 

ASML is not undervalued at its current valuation of about 46.4 times earnings with a PEG ratio of nearly 3. x.com 

Lam Research's non-China demand growth and steady earnings estimates make its lower multiple a rebound setup if its guide holds. China's revenue share fell from 43% to 26% as Taiwan and Korea grew, while the fiscal 2027 earnings multiple fell from about 37x to 28x on nearly unchanged estimates. An in-line quarter and December guide near consensus would probably lift the stock; a guide below $8.5bn would back the selloff. x.com 

Arm Holdings is expensive against its earnings, trading at 92x forward earnings versus a typical 38x for chipmakers. At 38x next year's $3.05 EPS, fair value runs roughly $102-$130, so at $281.30 buyers pay about 116% over fair value. This is a levels-only view from reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Texas Instruments looks expensive as a $260 billion chipmaker trading at about 50 times earnings while earning only $1.5 billion this quarter. x.com 

Semiconductor and memory stocks still look cheap despite the panic on forward earnings and growth-adjusted valuations. SK hynix trades at 4.4x forward earnings with a 0.04 PEG, Micron at 4.6x and 0.11, Sandisk at 5.5x and 0.10, and Nvidia at 14.2x and 0.22; the table extends across chipmakers and suppliers. Some of these figures may reflect peak earnings. x.com  x.com 

Camtek is cheap against its earnings. At $146.79 it trades at 31x earnings, while chip-equipment makers usually get 38x. Fair value is $160.15–$203.82, or 38x next year's $4.79 a share give or take 12%, leaving the stock 8% under the low end. The read leans on the forecast, with forward earnings 154% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com