Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
Microchip is the weak link in the analog theme, a poor-quality company next to Texas Instruments and Analog Devices. Last year it posted a loss of about $500,000 on $4.4 billion in revenue. x.comÂ
Intel's 25% growth is weak for the hottest semiconductor market ever, especially after the stock rose 5x in a year. It came against a prior-year quarter with 0% growth, while Texas Instruments grew 23% on a 13% comparison and AMD should grow above 50% on a 32% comparison. Calling it a huge beat misses that the business looks dead. x.com x.comÂ
Texas Instruments could command a P/E in the high 20s for FY2026, given strong EPS guidance of about $2 and a very bullish backdrop for microcontrollers, power electronics such as GaN and DC/DC, and analog chips for the AI data-center ramp. x.comÂ
Lam Research's valuation is scary, at 73 times earnings, a PEG ratio of 2.16 and 82 times free cash flow. x.comÂ
Intel's valuation remains stretched even on improving earnings: it is expected to earn $6B in net income in 2026, yet its forward P/E is still close to 100. Per Charlie Bilello, Intel now trades above 11x sales, its highest since 2000, versus under 2x a year ago, after losing $3.4B over the last year. x.comÂ
Texas Instruments is pushing ahead with further price increases, part of a second round of hikes across analog and power chipmakers, per @Omercheema. x.comÂ
Analog and power semiconductor stocks such as ON Semiconductor, Texas Instruments and NXP are pricing far ahead of their fundamentals. Even with price hikes they are not back to 2022 revenue, yet their share prices have risen multifold. The semiconductor supercycle is lifting even these laggards. x.com x.comÂ
Intel may now be too expensive after going from the worst semiconductor play to one of the best in under a year, as an expected return to profitability came with a multiple rerating on top. With earnings still compressed, a three-year forward view fits better, and on that basis a 2028 P/E of 50, cited in a post the author replies to, is too high. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Analog is back, and Texas Instruments can reach $350 or more after great earnings and guidance. The stock printed a "god candle" on the results, and the bigger the base, the higher it can go. A post the author quotes says Texas Instruments leads with a 20% share of the analog market and is attempting a five-year base breakout with strong accumulation. x.comÂ
Indie Semiconductor is expensive against its earnings at 36x forward earnings, while chipmakers usually get about 18x. Fair value sits around $1.31-1.66, or 18x next year's $0.08 EPS, so at $2.97 buyers pay about 78% over fair, and the valuation leans on a forecast 61% above trailing earnings. This read rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates only. x.comÂ