Moderna's cash burn and persistent operating losses make profitable commercialization the central constraint despite promising melanoma results. Its revenue remains too small and uneven to cover development costs, while rising diluted shares weaken financial resilience. x.com 

Personalis could be a swing trade on breakthrough cancer vaccine news, a holy grail whose importance is hard to overstate. Downstream players in mRNA cancer vaccines may have some juice. x.com  x.com 

Genomics is quietly coming back to life. Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine with Merck succeeded in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, sending Moderna up almost 100% in a day. The ecosystem spans sequencing (Illumina, PacBio, Thermo Fisher, Agilent), gene editing (CRISPR, Intellia, Beam, Prime), gene therapy (uniQure), tools (Twist, Danaher, Qiagen, Bio-Techne, 10x), diagnostics (Natera, Guardant) and therapeutics (Lilly, Regeneron, Vertex, Moderna, BioNTech, BioMarin, Roche). x.com 

Moderna should be a $500 stock on the strength of its personalized mRNA cancer therapy, now in a Phase 3 trial for the first time. As described in a post shared on the news, the therapy gives the immune system the tumor's genetic fingerprint so T-cells can be trained to find the cancer, while Keytruda removes the brakes cancer places on those T-cells. x.com 

Moderna is not a long here because its valuation is now super stretched after a huge one-day move. Per @A_May_MD, Moderna added $45B in market cap on a dataless phase 3 press release in adjuvant combination melanoma, with a drug it owns only half of. Non-experts expecting AI to cure cancer and develop drugs at insane speed are out of their league. The news is great, but risk needs managing, and this may work only as a trade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tempus AI's growth story has become a real one, with Q2 revenue up 22% to $382.5 million, positive net income and EBITDA, a 73.5% gross margin and $816 million of cash. Its $1.5 billion Personalis deal owns the sequencing technology behind the Moderna-Merck mRNA cancer vaccine, whose strong Phase 3 melanoma results validated the bet. Piper Sandler upgraded it to Overweight with a $76 target, up from $56, citing Personalis and strong INTerpath-001 MRD data. $80 is support for the breakout. x.com 

ImmunityBio is worth adding to because the company claims it can cure cancer, and the chart is very clean. x.com 

Moderna looks expensive even under a bullish scenario. A base model values Covid, flu and RSV at $10B, oncology at $15B and the platform at $5B: a $30B market cap, or $75 a share versus $135, about 45% downside. Even $10B of oncology sales by 2035, one of the best pharma launches ever, at 8x sales and a 10% discount rate gives about $120. The CMV trial failed, norovirus is at risk, rivals are developing mRNA flu vaccines, and BofA's raised $170 target looks unjustified. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Moderna looks overvalued at about $80B after its melanoma success sparked a retail frenzy. Its upcoming Phase 2 lung cancer and Phase 3 kidney cancer readouts target cold tumors, with much lower odds than melanoma, though success in either would fuel the rally further. January calls cost about 67% of the share price annualized, the most expensive option seen on an already overvalued stock. The retail-driven trend could continue in the short term. x.com 

Tempus AI's Moderna and Merck collaboration puts its oncology data and algorithms to work on cancer vaccines and immuno-oncology drugs, supporting the commercial value of its pharma data platform. The multiyear agreement adds to its licensing case; Q2 revenue rose more than 21.6% to $382 million, and the EPS loss of $0.04 beat the expected $0.20 loss. Sustained profitability remains prospective. Tempus AI could reach $145. x.com