Exceptional buying inflows support the bullish view on Petrobras. About $5 billion flowed in last week, its largest inflow since 2014, as the stock emerged from the 10-year support/resistance flip highlighted this summer. x.com
AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Petrobras leads this week's EWT Growth Leaders because of surging earnings and sales in the leading energy group. It ranks #1 with a 91 score and A rating: last-quarter EPS rose 121% year over year, sales 60%, and annual EPS 191%. A breakout above 26.42 or a fourth-wave pullback to 24.3-23.0 offers a setup for a projected fifth wave to 32.8-33.2. x.com
Petrobras looks cheap against its earnings at 6x forward earnings, versus the roughly 14x oil and gas producers usually get. Applying 14x to next year's estimated $4.14 a share gives a fair range of about $51 to $65, leaving the stock 52% below the low end. The view rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates only, not fundamental work. x.com
Brazilian domestic-market companies such as Nu, XP, Itaú, Bradesco, PagSeguro, CSN and Inter stand to benefit from a falling exchange rate, so positioning belongs in the domestic market. The exporters Petrobras and Vale are the ones falling today, which fits that call. The view was laid out in an iProfesional article on which CEDEARs could take off depending on whether Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's elections. x.com
Brazilian equities offer commodity and critical-mineral exposure, faster renewable-powered data-center grid connections, and diversification from the US. EWZ's $702 million inflow on October 5 was the largest daily inflow in the chart's history. That supports the bull case as investors recognize Brazil's potential, though the rush also looks like reactive FOMO. x.com
Nubank, Sea Limited and MercadoLibre are all great buys now, with Bolsonaro's first-round victory in Brazil good news for Brazil-exposed names. Per @StockMarketNerd, he performed much better than polls indicated and is generally seen as the more business-friendly candidate. Emerging-market names like these also serve as hedges against the US market. x.com
Chevron already has producing Venezuelan ventures, but expanded agreements still need drilling, dependable power, crews and equipment before more barrels can be sold. Its three ventures were producing about 280,000 barrels a day at the July earnings call, and production had grown 15% year to date by September. Keep holding Chevron, but past gains do not justify buying more at any price. x.com x.com x.com x.com
WTI crude above $100 supports SM Energy's bullish setup. A new impulse off the $32.55 low has wave 3 underway, with $43.03 as the projected marker. x.com
Brazilian equities are early in a reversal that has only just started. Emerging markets are running in an opposite cycle to the US market and have begun to turn, and Brazil looks the strongest of them and serves as a safe haven. x.com
Brazil could be the Q4 macro story after Flávio Bolsonaro won the election's first round and, with most eliminated votes leaning right, became the runoff favorite against Lula. Brazil-linked stocks were priced for disaster on US yields, election risk and rate fears. Nu is the quality blue chip, while Inter & Co and PicPay have far more room to grow and are much cheaper; StoneCo, PagSeguro, dLocal and MercadoLibre are also candidates. x.com x.com x.com
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more