France's fiscal bind and widening French-German bond spread raise contagion risk across Europe and threaten further euro weakness against the dollar. There is no easy economic way out for France, a problem that may apply to many EU countries. The 10-year spread is nearing the 190-basis-point level seen during the November 2011 eurozone crisis; the euro should continue to weaken against the dollar. x.com  x.com 

Rising French sovereign yields signal the disintegration of France and the EU/euro. France's 10-year yield is now above 5%, with an 8-9% target; EUR/USD's 1.12 level still acts as support, though it shows a huge negative divergence. x.com 

The euro should stay resilient because higher European interest rates make it structurally far sturdier than the yen, especially with so many shorts placed against it. US selling of euros to buy yen was too small to overwhelm broader euro-bullish macro trends in a market trading over $7.5 trillion a day. x.com 

Bitcoin's fixed supply offers protection as UK debt forces sterling debasement. With debt above £3 trillion, a roughly £350 billion annual deficit and a 5.77% 30-year gilt yield, a war scare could serve as cover for printing. A sudden UK monetary reset could wipe out 80% of purchasing power, though this could be wrong. Bitcoin is a 5-10 year hold, not a promise of returns in 6-24 months; if governments keep printing, its long-term price should rise against their currencies. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar faces debasement because papering over the debt burden requires destroying its purchasing power to reduce debt-to-GDP. With no new buyer for US debt, bond rates will keep climbing: debt is $40 trillion versus $5 trillion in 2007, with a $2 trillion annual deficit and debt at 123% of GDP. Getting rates back to 2.5% would require a complete financial reset that destroys the dollar and inflates debt away; otherwise rates will climb to 6-9% in the short to medium term. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar appears to have finally cracked, which would be good for the euro and the yen, along with gold, bitcoin, silver, copper and bonds. x.com 

The euro loses as the EU centralizes power in Brussels, which accelerates capital flight. Removing national vetoes on foreign policy, which Commission President von der Leyen backed on April 14 as a way to avoid systemic blockages, is the fifth such decision against diversification. It follows tighter stablecoin rules, crypto regulation under AMLR in 2027, a €10,000 cap on cash transactions and 212,000 banking jobs expected to be lost to AI by 2030. x.com 

The US dollar is unlikely to break out in the short term without a catalyst. An in-line PCE print pulled down 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the dollar index sits at major resistance at its May 2025 high, USD/JPY at 162 is a critical level for the Bank of Japan to defend, and currencies move slower than bonds. A reopened Strait of Hormuz would also help Europe and the euro recover, adding pressure; that favors short-term longs in gold and emerging markets. x.com  x.com 

The euro should grind higher against the dollar through 2026 as a more dovish Fed weighs on the dollar over the medium term, even though safe-haven flows support the dollar near term. EUR/USD stands at 1.1720, with the dollar index flat at 98.50. x.com 

Gold and silver are where everyone will put their money as savings come under threat. EU citizens should save in gold, silver and bitcoin because Ursula von der Leyen is about to go after their savings amid stagnation and rights restrictions. Luke Gromen notes the dollar has fallen 93% measured in gold since September 2001. x.com  x.com