Anthropic and OpenAI's inevitable move into cybersecurity threatens CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks' valuations. They look like the market's biggest bubble stocks right now; CrowdStrike trades at 40x ARR despite 25% growth and negative GAAP EBIT. x.com  x.com 

Security software is arguably more of an AI bubble than semiconductors. Firms are bid up to nosebleed multiples on moderate AI-related revenue acceleration while facing medium- to long-term risks from Microsoft, Google and the AI labs and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Their forward P/Es rest on non-GAAP earnings that exclude large stock compensation. A reversal could come from results missing high buy-side bars, security share gains by Microsoft or Google, or AI lab security launches. x.com  … Show more

These twelve stocks could dominate the next era by meeting infrastructure and consumer demand. TSMC makes AI chips; Palo Alto Networks secures cloud; GE Aerospace earns engine-service revenue; IREN builds AI cloud; Broadcom supplies chips and networking; Intuitive Surgical sells surgical robots. Strategy offers bitcoin exposure; e.l.f. Beauty serves Gen Z; Robinhood expands finance; The Trade Desk serves advertisers; Walmart adds ads and memberships; Vistra powers AI data centers. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Leading cybersecurity names Cloudflare, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks look hard to own as AI threatens to collapse the industry. Together they generate $18bn of revenue on $550bn of combined market value, while Mythos has real potential to become the only cyber company anyone needs. x.com 

Cybersecurity is the real bubble right now, because greater importance in the age of AI does not justify paying valuations like 40x sales for names such as Cloudflare, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. x.com 

AI, networks and power give these 12 stocks some of the decade's biggest tailwinds. Micron is one of three big HBM makers; Samsara connects fleets; IonQ builds quantum computers; Ciena supplies optics; GE Vernova and Eaton serve power demand; Dell ships AI servers. Netflix, the largest paid streamer, adds ads; Coupang, Korea's largest e-commerce platform, delivers same-day; Airbnb, the largest short-term rental marketplace, adds services; Arm enters data centers; CrowdStrike secures enterprises. … Show more

Palantir, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare are top-tier companies, but their valuations may have reached bubble territory, a reason to book profits on long-term holds. Their combined market cap has grown from about $90B to $840B, and their P/E and P/S multiples price in much future growth. CrowdStrike and Cloudflare in particular trade on hopes that the agentic era, with bots charged for access and usage-based AI pricing, will make revenue explode. Trimming Cloudflare and CrowdStrike has started. … Show more

Salesforce at a 52-week low trades like a broken business at about 11x forward earnings, yet it is 95% subscription with 77%-plus gross margins and $72 billion of RPO, up 14%. Marc Benioff has repurchased $27.1 billion, cutting diluted shares 10%, and says AI makes Salesforce stronger and the latest quarter had a record volume of large deals. A roughly 1% Anthropic stake bought for about $330 million is now worth over $8 billion, value the market is giving away free. x.com 

Cybersecurity stocks catching a bid makes sense, because boards and CTOs will react strongly to cyber risks from agent proliferation. AI lab chiefs Dario Amodei and Sam Altman proving untrustworthy again also makes CTOs less willing to use their labs for cyber. The multiples are too high, though. x.com 

Cybersecurity stocks are priced for near-perfect execution. Forward P/Es stand at 201x for Cloudflare, 163x for CrowdStrike, 77x for Palo Alto Networks, 44x for Fortinet, 39x for Okta and 32x for Zscaler. x.com