IC substrates are Schmid's more relevant growth driver today because demand is already high and rising. Schmid customers Ibiden and Unimicron are expanding capacity with NVIDIA support; higher order intake supports the prospect of more equipment orders. Its balance sheet has improved, and the risk/reward looks attractive at current levels despite volatility. Glass substrates may take another one to two years to matter commercially. This is a personal assessment, not a buy recommendation. x.com  … Show more

Ibiden stands to benefit from a tight substrate supply chain that is pushing customers to prepay. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan told CNBC that a couple of customers have prepaid for substrates because supply is very tight and he must put up money to secure material, which shows commitment. Intel also uses AT&S for substrates, but Ibiden is its main supplier. x.com  x.com 

Ibiden is overpriced and set to lose market share, so AT&S, Kinsus and Ajinomoto are the better substrate positions. This runs against FundaAI (@FundaAI), which argues that high-end ABF capacity is failing to keep pace with AI silicon and sees rerating room for Ibiden at about 45 times FY3/28 earnings. x.com 

Unimicron should benefit from a persistent AI ABF substrate shortage and a shift toward higher-end products. Its projected share exceeds 30% as the market reaches $13bn/$18bn in 2027/28; added capacity is expected to lift ABF revenue 66%/90%. Higher-end ABF, mSAP and LPDDR lift margins, supporting 77% EPS CAGR. Initiate Buy with a NT$1,820 target at 30x 2027 earnings. x.com 

Unimicron's profit leverage to rising ABF substrate prices should stay significantly positive and last longer than the market expects, even if customers absorb only part of the increases. As a high-end ABF leader, its high fixed costs and utilization leverage limit any squeeze from costlier T-glass. The T-glass bottleneck and long capacity cycles could extend the benefit for a year or two, and its high Nvidia and ASIC share adds pricing power, though execution on hikes and utilization matters. … Show more

Intel heads into earnings with strong capex tailwinds pointing its way. SpaceX raised $80 billion in its IPO, much of which is going to Intel, and Tesla raised capex with much of it also headed to Intel. Alphabet's higher capex is bullish for all chip trades, and every AI name reporting so far has blown expectations away. x.com 

Ultra Clean should benefit from Intel's fab and capex expansion, and the stock has not pulled back. x.com 

Ajinomoto, Nittobo, Ibiden and AT&S sit in an ABF substrate supply chain consolidated into near-monopolies, where the AI chip bottleneck keeps moving. Nvidia, Intel and AMD are prepaying for suppliers' factories, with Ibiden receiving over 90 billion yen; companies that size do not prepay unless out of options. Ajinomoto holds over 95% of the substrate film market, and Apple, Nvidia and Google are chasing Nittobo's glass fabric. A capex cycle ending in overcapacity is the risk. x.com  x.com 

Intel delivered the quarter its turnaround case needed, beating its own guidance and the Street on both lines. The headline GAAP loss comes from a non-cash charge on the US government's escrowed shares that grows as the stock rises; the core business is firmly profitable again, with AI compute demand lifting CPUs, advanced packaging and foundry. Catalysts include Xeon 6+ on 18A, Panther Lake in high-volume manufacturing, 18A-P in risk production and over 130 customers testing Core Ultra. x.com 

Intel is a leading semiconductor name that benefits massively from US government investment and a likely Terafab collaboration with Tesla and SpaceX's xAI. Its chart is forming a textbook high-tight flag. x.com