Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
Microsoft, Meta and other big tech stocks fell largely on macro, so a likely end to the Iran war could drive a recovery. President Trump said the US will leave within two or three weeks, after Iran's president expressed the will to end the war and sought assurances against renewed aggression. Such a confident timeline suggests a back-channel deal, so this rally is not one to fade. x.comÂ
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta should recover over the long term, as the US tech selloff looks overdone despite improving fundamentals. Year to date Microsoft is down 21.9%, Alphabet 7.7%, Amazon 7.4% and Meta 8.5%. Near term, a SpaceX IPO at $1.7T could act as a liquidity vacuum for large caps, and markets doubt the Iran war ends soon, so short-term options are best avoided. x.comÂ
Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com x.comÂ
Crude oil should calm as US-Iran de-escalation gathers real momentum. Trump says a peace deal is coming Sunday; Iran is playing its usual timeline games, but de-escalation would bring oil down and give markets the green light. x.comÂ
Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.comÂ
A possible US strike on Iran poses near-term upside risk for crude oil. If Trump expects to lose the midterms, he may act between Israel's October 27 election and the November 3 US vote. Crude has filled the $101 gap and reached the rising channel's midpoint; if it keeps breaking higher, the next levels are $105, $110 and the channel top near $115. x.comÂ
The Nasdaq 100 may be nearing a breakout after about three months of sideways chop since the tech drawdown, as fears of further war escalation and $100-plus oil fade. Semiconductors are showing relative strength. Risk remains after Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, per the WSJ, but ugly weekends have often reversed on a sudden deal, sending oil lower and stocks higher, so positioning heavily around that narrative is risky. x.comÂ
Potential spending cuts and AI-related deflation make long-dated US Treasuries an asymmetric opportunity. A Democratic sweep could cut spending; an AI-trade blowup could cause deflation, while the AI trade hurts employment. Ending the Iran war could reduce spending and oil prices. Further crude gains could damage the economy hard and quickly enough to outweigh the inflation threat. x.com x.comÂ
Israel's and the US's upcoming elections may discourage further escalation, opening a path to peace and a sharp drop in oil if the war cools. Israel votes October 27 and the US November 3; lower oil would give crypto room to recover. x.comÂ
Crude oil stays elevated as long as there is no deal with Iran, feeding a vicious cycle in which higher oil keeps inflation sticky and pushes rates higher, breaking the bond market. To bring yields down, Trump must either convince the market oil flows are normal or end the war. x.comÂ
Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.comÂ
Peace with Iran will be the market catalyst by easing oil-driven inflation and financing concerns. Normal cargo costs would stabilize oil prices as refineries rebuild and production rises; inflation expectations and the US 10-year yield would fall, bringing liquidity back into technology. The deal is an extremely strong suspicion, not concrete knowledge, and its timing is unknown. Unlike the 21.4% SPY drawdown before the April 2025 tariff pause, the index has seen no drawdown yet. x.comÂ
