IREN's massive ATM overhang means any upside from a new deal would be negated by heavy selling into any price jump. @aleabitoreddit notes IREN is down 7.9% this year while Nebius is up 61.1%, and argues that its $6 billion ATM lifts market cap while shrinking existing holders' per-share value. x.com 

Bakkt has never generated real earnings and still cannot articulate a coherent strategy to do so. Bull valuations that rest on hoped-for future EBITDA, such as 10x a $100M figure, are wishful thinking. x.com 

Bakkt looks to be bottoming, with higher lows since earnings and a volume-shelf launch area at $10. It aims for $2.5 billion of business by end-2026 versus $410 million so far this year, with break-even targeted for Q4 2026. Six products are live, new agent finance tools are ready for partners, and credit cards plus full bank-like services arrive in Q4. It holds $50.7 million in cash and no debt. x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Open-source models likely wrecked the heavy-capex thesis behind IREN. Debt CDS and falling token prices make the still-bullish view definitely less so. Unlike Roku, a previous long-term hold with a unique, massive user base, low capex and positive free cash flow, IREN lacks a clear path forward; without one, it is better not to hold it. If Warsh remains hawkish, a full exit from IREN is very likely. x.com  x.com 

Robinhood is well positioned to benefit from tokenization, which Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev says is entering a supercycle that will eat the entire financial system. Traditional finance firms will be more involved than many expect, and distribution and liquidity are paramount. Under-covered public crypto infrastructure companies valued below $5B, Bakkt, BitGo and Bullish, are also building in this space, and the pie will be big enough for everyone involved. x.com 

IREN's management behavior is a reason to avoid the stock. A post the author replies to says it keeps diluting, issuing more shares on every rally, a pattern that leaves no telling what else it will spring on investors. x.com 

IREN will dilute shareholders more than any other listed company of its size, using the AI cycle to issue billions in stock. That keeps its price depressed even in a bull market, and in a correction or bear market it would be among the first to fall; those who bought at the top will not recover anytime soon. x.com 

IREN's governance is a red flag: it put a FinX influencer, Mike Alfred, on its board to shill the stock while continuously diluting shareholders through ATM offerings. It also acquired a PR company. Per @aleabitoreddit, IREN faces endless dilution like BKKT, ASST and SLNH, and Alfred has promoted every one of them. There is never a good reason to put an influencer on a board other than to have the stock promoted. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

IREN is an extreme diluter of shareholders, so peers offer better equity exposure to the data center buildout. Its share count rose from 50M in 2022 to 350M through ATMs, repeated convertibles and 40M shares sold at $42; a new $6B ATM could dilute 35% or more, and it issued 30M warrant shares to help pay for Nvidia GPUs. Its new $3B convertible runs seven years with a $110 cap; if the stock doesn't get there, Cipher, Nebius, Riot or Marathon look better. Bondholders may fare better. x.com  x.com