Coherent's 6-inch substrate access, yields and margin concerns look mostly like timing issues in the optical buildout. Coherent is now one of the preferred ways to gain exposure and should participate meaningfully, despite those constraints. x.com 

Coherent has the most substance in the optical group and the only real base on its chart, while the sector's sell-off is macro, not fundamental. At about 23x 2027 estimates it looks mispriced, and it is the only company holding 6-inch InP, silicon photonics, OCS and CPO engines at once. It alone has stopped making lows. Rate-hike pricing and a 5.04% 10-year are still compressing optical multiples, so staged, defined-risk entries beat full commitments; a daily close below 264 invalidates it. … Show more

Applied Optoelectronics has a better chance than Coherent of delivering a 300-400 mW laser with tolerable RIN and linewidth. Its transceiver capacity ramp is also larger and is not gated by Sumitomo's 6-inch InP wafers. Long AAOI against short COHR is an unnecessarily dangerous pair trade idea. x.com 

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Coherent's lasers power the AI data-center buildout, an infrastructure play that keeps running and a stock to hold through the next cycle. x.com 

Coherent and Lumentum are ultra overvalued, so when their monthly top comes in, they should fall about four times faster than they rose. Coherent may have already topped. x.com 

Coherent's optical networking business is surfacing from a conglomerate structure as the AI buildout flows through it; Overweight, with a $300 target by December 2026. Hyperscalers moving to 800G and 1.6T qualify suppliers on capability and volume, giving durable design-win revenue. Margins can expand on mix, synergies, operating leverage and debt paydown. Q4 revenue guidance of $1.98B came in $70M above consensus, with gross margin heading toward 40%, signaling demand is not slowing. x.com  … Show more

Coherent is a tactical buy because growth and margins should accelerate once its 6-inch production ramps, yield challenges notwithstanding. The quarter disappointed on a slower 2x InP ramp and slow margin progress toward 42%, with Coherent still reliant on Lumentum's lasers. Over the next 4-8 quarters it can catch up in simpler CW lasers, with OCS and CPO the real upside. Lumentum, growing about 90% versus Coherent's 20%, remains the preferred concentrated long-term AI-optics bet. x.com 

Coherent is the most potentially undervalued photonics play because the market has not caught up to what it has become. Its March 23 demonstration with Tower Semiconductor of 400 Gbps per lane on a silicon modulator, aimed at 3.2T transceivers, is not priced in. Revenue rose from $1.58B to $1.69B with $1.78B guided, and it was first to mass-produce 1.6T transceivers. Despite running from $61 to $336, it trades at a fraction of Arista's and Broadcom's valuations. x.com  x.com 

Coherent now has credible exposure to almost every optical architecture hyperscalers are exploring, and its Nvidia deal materially de-risks that roadmap. Nvidia's nonexclusive pact adds a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment, a $2B equity investment and access to five CPO product families. First CPO/NPO revenue targeted for H2 2026 matches Nvidia's timing. Data center and communications are already 72% of revenue. Qualification, standards, concentration and margins remain unsettled. x.com