Jukan
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini
POET Technologies lost its Marvell supply agreement after its own CFO disclosed the deal publicly in violation of the NDA, badly damaging the company. Marvell notified POET of the termination on the 23rd, but POET sat on the news while the stock rose, leaving shareholders who bought in the meantime exposed and the company open to shareholder lawsuits. x.com x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies' management team is inept, and management quality is make-or-break for investing in a company. POET breached its NDA with Marvell by confirming a purchase order after a short report, and Marvell then cancelled all its Celestial AI orders, per @Kaizen_Investor, sending the stock down almost 50%. x.com x.comÂ
POET looks headed toward zero after Marvell cancelled its Celestial AI orders over a confidentiality breach, costing POET basically its only big customer. With only three or four major end customers, who could use COUPE instead, no revenue and ongoing cash burn, its reputation may never recover. The Marvell contract likely helped its $300M-plus raise, so investors may sue for their money back, and the stock could easily fall below $5. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
POET Technologies' 47% one-day plunge was self-inflicted, not a technology problem, making it an easy buy. Marvell, which bought Celestial AI in February, pulled Celestial's orders citing a confidentiality breach after POET's CFO confirmed the order on Stocktwits. The stock has since rebounded 211.67% in two weeks. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' management can't be trusted and the company is likely to be blackballed in the near term. As @amitisinvesting recounts, its CFO disclosed a Marvell order on a podcast, sending the stock from $6.80 to $17, before Marvell called it a breach of confidentiality and the shares fell 45% in a day. x.comÂ
POET's bull case is crushed after Marvell cancelled POET purchase orders tied to Celestial AI following a confidentiality breach. That shifts the focus back to sourcing lasers directly from the scarce CPO laser supplier base. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' management has proven its incompetence, which matters because a rotten foundation in leadership keeps a business from flourishing. Per @ren_stocks, the CFO broke an NDA by naming a customer, leading Marvell to cancel its deals just as the stock ran from $5 to $16. On a leadership scoring framework, POET rates poorly: a technically credentialed team with a decade-long pattern of overpromising, chasing hot themes, dilution and now a governance failure. x.com x.comÂ
POET has lost its anchor customer, and the way it happened signals a company that is a mess from the top down. Marvell canceled all its Celestial orders, including initial production units POET had touted since around 2023, after POET's CFO disclosed confidential information in an interview. Years of heavy dilution add to the damage. $430 million of cash plus a $400 million May raise covers years of burn at about $9 million a quarter, so dilution could ease, but with this management, who knows. … Show more
POET Technologies has a path forward after Marvell in 800G/1.6T pluggables, now confirmed by a Lumilens supply and joint development deal. Lumilens placed an initial $50 million order for POET's Electrical-Optical Interposer engines, potentially exceeding $500 million over five years, with a roadmap through near-package and co-packaged optics. Engineering samples are targeted for late 2026 and production in 2027, subject to development and qualification. POET granted Lumilens warrants at $8.25. … Show more
POET's place in the optical stack is weaker than its narrative implied, as Marvell's cancellation of all its orders shows. Marvell cited an NDA breach, but critical suppliers don't get fired over disclosure issues; they get a phone call. If POET were load-bearing or a competitive threat, Marvell would keep orders running or buy it outright, not cancel. A Tier-1 customer is a signal, not a moat, and pilot orders are not validation; if switching suppliers costs little, POET doesn't control a node. … Show more
