Tesla could reach $800 if it executes on humanoid robots at scale, since it is now an AI software, hardware and robotics company rather than an EV maker. The stock has consolidated in a large ascending triangle since 2021, as the market waits to see whether Tesla can scale humanoids the way its 2020-21 run priced in its EV dominance. If anyone can do it, Elon Musk can. x.com 

Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.com 

Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Scaling Tesla's robotaxi fleet to 5,000 could yield a $584 million annual revenue run rate by year-end. The model assumes 24/7 operation, 40 daily rides per vehicle averaging five miles, 70% utilization, and current fares of $3 plus $1 per mile. A 5,000-vehicle fleet by year-end is now the expectation; introducing Cybercabs in other states could keep growth going at its current pace. x.com  x.com  x.com 

A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.com 

Tesla is too expensive right now; it would only start to look interesting under $250, with a small position, and more so under $200. It is hard to be too bullish while Elon Musk spends at least half his time on SpaceX, xAI, Starlink and other ventures. Combining everything into one $2 trillion company would be very interesting, since a SpaceX IPO alone should be nowhere near $2 trillion. The robotaxi and robotics themes are still worth watching over 5+ years. x.com 

Tesla's Optimus will scale profitably sooner than many realize, because humanoid robots don't need robotaxi's many nines of reliability; in many useful settings, 99% or less will do. Tesla will have 100,000 Optimus robots by end of 2027 or early 2028, at about $3 billion of capex, generating massive training data for its growing Austin compute. Unlike FSD's mostly boring miles, far more Optimus data will be useful for training. Commercial demand should keep them out of homes for a few years. … Show more

Tesla's low-cost, high-margin Cybercabs make its Robotaxi opportunity bigger than investors appreciate. ARK estimates each costs about $30K to make and generates $93K a year at roughly 68% gross margin; Tesla is not bullish enough in investors' eyes. Texas registrations show 1,080 Teslas, including 573 Cybercabs, versus 1,207 Waymos; these are registrations, not active rides. Cybercabs already outnumber Model Ys less than two months after launch. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's bear-case risks compound faster than its bull catalysts because the stock is priced on optionality. DCF, comparable-company and precedent-transaction methods all put fair value materially below the current price, leaving it reliant on assumptions no standard method can verify. Raising 2026 capex from $20B to $25B+ for Terafab, AI5, Optimus and Robotaxi sacrifices near-term earnings, the HW3 issue is a real liability, and Robotaxi edge cases are resolving slower than bulls priced. x.com  … Show more

Tesla's long-term case rests not on cars but on an unmatched stack of optionality. Robotaxi paid miles nearly doubled sequentially across Texas, Optimus factory prep is starting with a first-generation line designed for 1 million robots a year, and FSD regulatory approval is expanding globally. Revenue was $22.4 billion with gross margins back to 21%. x.com