AI has erased engineering complexity as a SaaS moat, so software survives only with compliance or data lock-in. Tyler Technologies, Veeva and Guidewire are anchored in government, pharma and insurance rules, where leaving means a compliance audit; Veeva's revenue rose 16% while its stock fell 25%. Palantir's ontology locks in customer data. Salesforce, Workday, Adobe and ServiceNow are seat-based with neither moat, and BlackLine and nCino, though regulated, never went AI-native. x.com 

Adobe's problem is no longer valuation but bad sentiment toward software companies. It fell after hours in sympathy with ServiceNow despite trading around 15x trailing and 10x forward earnings while still growing 10%, and none of that matters right now. To recover, Adobe needs more collaborative projects and joint events with leading AI companies so it is seen as definitively part of the future. x.com 

Adobe's moat may be that no artists want to build their own Photoshop or Premiere, even as everyone in finance thinks they can vibe code Bloomberg and has the money to try. x.com 

Application software makers Adobe, Salesforce and ServiceNow are sneaky losers from the AI-lab slowdown, because frontier labs can now focus on their customers instead of AGI. Lab leaders including Elon Musk, Dario Amodei and Sam Altman have pivoted to warning that AI could kill you, which, with AI already polling badly, will make it much harder to attract investment. The fallout could be real. x.com 

UiPath and integration-software vendors are on the wrong side of GPT-6 Astra's computer-use ability. OpenAI's Greg Brockman argues models that operate software like a person will bypass the APIs, plugins and RPA glue companies pay for. Astra scored 72.6% on OSWorld. If that holds in production, integration budgets shift from middleware to agent sellers. UiPath won't go straight to zero, being embedded in controls, audit logs and multi-year contracts; eight quarters of renewals decide it. x.com  … Show more

Adobe, Salesforce and ServiceNow, the supposed AI losers, offer the best long-term value in this market, per JPMorgan. The fear is that AI tools destroy incumbent software economics, but multiples already price a catastrophic scenario, whether or not the collapse happens. This is the setup in which dead stocks became the best performers of the next cycle. x.com 

Adobe is among the SaaS companies at risk because AI agents don't care about UX/UI, and SaaS businesses that rely on their interfaces are toast. Some were top SaaS names in 2021, before the ZIRP-era SaaS collapse. x.com  x.com 

Adobe is falling despite growing revenue and earnings because AI is disrupting its core image- and PDF-editing products, and that kind of disruption simply takes time to show up in the numbers. Newspapers after the internet and BlackBerry after the iPhone followed the same path. Anyone using AI to edit images or PDFs can see it. x.com 

UiPath, Zeta Global and ServiceNow are discounted because the market treats AI as a pure threat rather than a product accelerator, as it once did with Google, now up 120% this year. They should rerate once investors see that AI makes their products better, faster and more valuable, and that AI still needs real enterprise workflows, data, compliance, automation and execution layers to be useful. x.com 

UiPath may carry the highest business-model risk of any SaaS company because LLM agents with computer use compete directly with its robotic process automation. Rivals include Anthropic and OpenAI themselves. Its base is sticky for now, with 97% gross retention, regulated large-enterprise customers and long contracts, giving it time to sell AI tools. Still, it would be very surprising if gross retention stays in the high 90s, and the 2x EV/ARR multiple reflects the threat. x.com