5N Plus is an unskippable toll booth on AI hardware because it supplies the ultra-pure materials that photonics and power chips require. Its indium phosphide substrates feed the lasers in 800G and 1.6T transceivers as copper hits its limits, and its high-purity gallium serves GaN power chips. FY2025 revenue rose 35% to $391M and EBITDA 73% to $92.4M, with a 353-day backlog, and AZUR SPACE is expanding capacity 25%. Risks: a 38x P/E, lumpy earnings, and exposure if AI capex cools. x.com 

EQ Resources, MP Materials and 5N Plus are top picks in minerals and materials, each tied to defense supply chains. EQ Resources runs the Mt Carbine and Barruecopardo tungsten mines, one of the few investable non-Chinese tungsten supply stories. MP Materials has a Defense Department partnership, a 15% government equity stake and a $110/kg NdPr price floor for 10 years. 5N Plus supplies germanium for precision-guided munitions, with a defense supply-chain re-rating already underway. x.com 

Coherent has the most substance in the optical group and the only real base on its chart, while the sector's sell-off is macro, not fundamental. At about 23x 2027 estimates it looks mispriced, and it is the only company holding 6-inch InP, silicon photonics, OCS and CPO engines at once. It alone has stopped making lows. Rate-hike pricing and a 5.04% 10-year are still compressing optical multiples, so staged, defined-risk entries beat full commitments; a daily close below 264 invalidates it. … Show more

Ferroglobe is the cleanest, cheapest play on Western metals protectionism at about 0.7x sales and 16x EBITDA, while rare earth names trade at 20-30x sales. Its tailwinds reach beyond silicon metal to ferrosilicon, manganese alloys and potentially magnesium, antimony and gallium, and management says it is in active talks with governments, campaigning for an MP Materials-style deal. It has cut nearly all debt and keeps a tight float. The polysilicon story is in its first inning. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Lumentum is the only volume supplier of EML lasers for 1.6T optics, capacity is sold out, and indium phosphide fabs do not scale overnight. Qualcomm and Corning partnered with it on 1,060nm VCSEL chip-to-chip links targeting about 10 Tb/s. Revenue grew 109% and it trades at 30.6x forward earnings with $1.07B of net cash; a one-time $7.8B non-cash convert charge hid profitable operations. Risks are convert dilution and Coherent and Broadcom adding InP lasers before the shortage eases. x.com 

JX Advanced Metals has another bullish driver in a massive indium phosphide expansion. Per @pequityresearch, citing investors, JX plans to raise InP capacity 20-30x by the end of FY29, versus 7-10x originally. x.com 

Aixtron is a mispriced European AI photonics play: it holds over 90% of the market for the MOCVD reactors that grow the indium phosphide crystals used in AI data center lasers, so every laser in Nvidia or Broadcom optical transceivers starts in its machines. Customers include Coherent, Lumentum, Nokia/Infinera and SMART Photonics, and laser lead times stretch past 2027. Despite a significant re-rating, it trades at 38x EV/EBITDA versus 84x for peers like BESI. x.com 

Fabrinet is the strategic bottleneck for 1.6T optical interconnects, as its proprietary 5-axis active alignment solves the sub-0.5-micron laser coupling these transceivers need. HPC revenue jumped to $86M in Q2 FY26 from $15M on 200G EML lasers for Nvidia networking. Its Thailand Building 10 expansion starts going live in July 2026, AWS and Google broaden the customer base, and it holds $961M cash with no net debt. At about 3.6x forward sales, it is not priced for hype. x.com 

X-FAB's earnings confirmed direct exposure to co-packaged optics and the 800V shift, which should drive a re-rating as markets price growth ahead. Management said it is progressing in CPO, with three silicon photonics projects and photonics volume production expected in 2028, a timeline not in revenue models yet. The 800V transition supports SiC and GaN demand, with three new SiC data center design wins pointing to a 2027 ramp. Current revenue is unimpressive, so some waiting is needed. x.com  … Show more

AXT is the upstream chokepoint of the photonics buildout, supplying the indium phosphide substrates every high-speed laser needs amid a massive global shortage. About 600,000-700,000 wafers shipped in 2025 against demand of 1.5-2 million, and AXT holds roughly 36% of a market three firms control. Record revenue rose 164% to $47.6M and gross margin hit 45% from 8.2%; Lumentum prepaid $87M to reserve capacity through 2031. The real risk is China, where slow export permits caused a guidance miss. … Show more