Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's bottom is confirmed as collapsing bond and fiat markets trigger a second event on its macro inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Many more moves and surges are on the way. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com 

Bitcoin and other risk assets are back after the Treasury signaled a liquidity injection, essentially turning the printer on. Falling long-term yields reflect markets pricing possible explicit or implicit yield curve control more than the buybacks themselves, which remain minor relative to net issuance. Short sellers are out of juice, and no bad news over the past three months has taken bitcoin below $60,000; with Saylor selling too, the bottom is in. x.com  x.com 

The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com 

Quality coins including Ethereum should outperform bitcoin through year-end, since the bottom very well could be in for ETH while bitcoin usually takes longer to capitulate. The current rally is probably a bullish period within an ongoing crypto bear market: perhaps a good run over the coming months and a dump into Q4, but no deeper bottom for quality coins, as the FUD has gotten stupid. Bitcoin's bottom could be in too, but other coins should still outperform. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin appears near a local bottom: MARA's reported sale of 996 BTC is another contrarian bottom indicator. x.com 

Bitcoin's resilient spot ETF holders support a tentative June-bottom call. Holdings fell only 11% while Bitcoin fell 53%, its shallowest bear market versus 77% and 84% in the last two; ETFs have since added 87,000 BTC. The bounce stayed strong amid higher yields. Galaxy Research says the bear market ended in June, citing less long-term-holder selling and five weekly closes above the 50-week average; it would reconsider on a weekly close below that average, near $76,540. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's bounce looks overbought and crowded, so lower prices in Q4 are slightly favored. The rally to the 200-day average beat expectations, hit 20-week cycle targets, leaving daily RSI at 85, with resistance at 80.6K and 82.8K. Fear & Greed is at a multi-year high, and heavy long leverage is likely to be flushed even if this is a major low. The four-year cycle points to a bottom from H2 2026 to early 2027, but whether it is in is unclear; failing a 68-69K 200-day test would mean a bear rally. … Show more

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more