Francis Hunt
Trading Education, Hunt Volatility Funnel & Capital Preservation
Bitcoin is a failed answer to dollar and debt devaluation because stablecoin issuers are shunning it and it works as a tracked digital onramp. Tether is buying more gold than Treasuries to shore up its collateral, and issuers have rejected Bitcoin after its 75% bear-market collapse. Bitcoin steers anti-fiat investors into digital money that supports a stablecoin ecosystem instead of physical precious metals, and it lacks cash's privacy from statists, enabling track and trace. x.com
The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com
Bitcoin has already bottomed, as the four-year cycle proved correct again. It peaked on schedule and bottomed within a few months of the usual calendar. The signal came once capitulation signals fired and bitcoin rallied on good news with high volume, the US Treasury news. x.com x.com
Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com
Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com x.com
Bitcoin appears near a local bottom: MARA's reported sale of 996 BTC is another contrarian bottom indicator. x.com
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin and other risk assets are back after the Treasury signaled a liquidity injection, essentially turning the printer on. Falling long-term yields reflect markets pricing possible explicit or implicit yield curve control more than the buybacks themselves, which remain minor relative to net issuance. Short sellers are out of juice, and no bad news over the past three months has taken bitcoin below $60,000; with Saylor selling too, the bottom is in. x.com x.com
History and correlations point to elevated near-term risk for bitcoin. Measured against Wrightson ICAP's estimate of net T-bill issuance, the chart suggests bitcoin bottoms out around $70K by the end of October. @MichaelMOTTCM notes the Fed has stopped its reserve management purchases, meaning no more QE; if that is accurate, it is a serious blow to bitcoin. x.com x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.com