Matthew Sigel
Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Portfolio Manager of NODE ETF
Applied Digital still looks cheap on its buildout, though it needs momentum and cooperative bond markets. Its CY26 deliveries may miss expectations by ~50MW, with a catch-up in early 2027; it plans 600MW in service over 12 months. Two expansion leases totaling 250MW are expected by year end at >15% higher pricing, later than first signaled. Macquarie is owed shares and ~25% of NOI on partnered North American deals; Finland's first 100MW is expected in 2028. x.com
Applied Digital is a poster child of the undervalued bitcoin-to-AI pivot group, with the market giving little value to signed leases or pipeline. It has contracted 1.4GW with over $35B in base lease value, up to $86B with renewals, for delivery by 2028 to about 70% investment-grade customers. With only about 100MW operating, construction delay is the near-term risk, but a site visit showed projects on plan and a repeatable build playbook. Proven execution should lift its multiple. x.com
Applied Digital's contracted backlog is more than twice its market value, so the market is giving the backlog away for free. It has $16 billion of signed 15-year leases with CoreWeave and an investment-grade US hyperscaler against a $7.5 billion market value. Revenue rose 250% to $126.6 million in fiscal Q2, its first 100 MW Polaris Forge 1 building was delivered on time and budget, and Polaris Forge 2 has a 200 MW lease signed. Yet the stock fell from $41 to $27 while nothing broke. x.com
Contracted AI compute demand makes four AI infrastructure stocks worth buying at 52-week lows. Applied Digital has a $36B backlog and expects 600+ MW online within 12 months; Cipher Mining has $8.5B+ in AI leases with payments ramping; CleanSpark has a 20-year $6.6B lease and 1.8+ GW power portfolio; CoreWeave has a $104B backlog and raised its year-end ARR target to $18.5-19.5B. x.com x.com
Applied Digital's AI and high-performance computing data centers could expand substantially as demand grows. It is a high-risk upside bet: construction costs, financing needs and dependence on large customers could impede that expansion. x.com
Applied Digital keeps signing hyperscale compute deals almost every month. Its latest is a 15-year lease worth $5.2B, and up to $12.7B, with the same investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW of IT load. CEO Wes Cummins said that two years ago the company deliberately chose to build a business that scales, not just to build data centers. x.com
Applied Digital is seeing relentless AI demand, now locked in by a massive 15-year take-or-pay lease for 210 MW. The lease adds roughly $5.2 billion of contracted revenue, bringing its total contracted portfolio to 1.4 GW and $36 billion. x.com x.com
2G Energy's growing orders and long service tail support its unusually cheap AI data-center power valuation. Nine-month 2026 orders exceed €880m, more than twice 2025 revenue; backlog runs into 2028 and service contracts last 15-20 years. Management first guided to €750-850m of revenue in 2028 and says units already sold could support over $100m in annual service revenue once running from mid-2027. At about 17x expected 2027 earnings, it looks cheapest in this space and is preferred to INNIO. … Show more
Applied Digital's locked-in power is an irreplaceable asset amid an AI-driven power shortage. A Montana-Dakota Utilities deal secures grid capacity for its planned 430 MW campus, and a 15-year take-or-pay hyperscaler lease should bring about $5.2B of base revenue. Polaris Forge 1, leased to CoreWeave, delivered its first 100 MW building. Spinning APLD Cloud into ChronoScale with Ekso Bionics would make it a pure-play AI infrastructure landlord eligible for a growth premium. x.com
Applied Digital's contracted AI data-center backlog should bring a dramatic shift in cash inflows as campuses come online through 2027 and beyond. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue rose 407% to $258.7 million. Leases of 210 MW at Delta Forge 2 and 300 MW at Delta Forge 1 bring contracted load to 1.4 GW, about $36 billion of 15-year take-or-pay revenue, funded by over $3.7 billion of senior secured notes. After a trendline breakout, a retest should precede a major move toward the mid-30s. x.com
Applied Digital's landlord model is finally showing in results, while cheaper capital and a removed tail risk strengthen the case. Base rent of $44.1M produced $39.9M of NOI at a 91% margin. New debt of $2.15B at 6.75% and $1.59B at 7.0% came 225 basis points inside its first financing, after CoreWeave won an investment-grade rating and backed the leases. The 10-K shows the roughly $2.4B Base Electron guarantee, the single biggest concern, was ended on May 29 for a $37M payment. x.com
Scarce power available for 2028 delivery and rising demand for that capacity favor Galaxy Digital, IREN and Cipher Mining. XCapitalMgmt highlights Galaxy management's report of delayed competing projects, stronger demand from hyperscalers and AI firms for 2028 capacity, and more selective financing. Galaxy has over 800 MW secured at Helios II but is still evaluating tenants and deal terms. x.com
