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Real Estate Developer, Public & Private Equity Investor Since 2016
Applied Digital's landlord model is finally showing in results, while cheaper capital and a removed tail risk strengthen the case. Base rent of $44.1M produced $39.9M of NOI at a 91% margin. New debt of $2.15B at 6.75% and $1.59B at 7.0% came 225 basis points inside its first financing, after CoreWeave won an investment-grade rating and backed the leases. The 10-K shows the roughly $2.4B Base Electron guarantee, the single biggest concern, was ended on May 29 for a $37M payment. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's cost of capital has re-rated from about 9.8% to about 7%, as CoreWeave's investment-grade status de-risks its anchor tenant and enabled cheaper debt. Its PF1 and PF2 campuses are fully financed. Operating cash flow turned positive for the first time at $89.7M, adjusted EBITDA and net income were positive, and a 91% NOI margin shows the landlord economics are real. About $6B of expansion backlog is close, the $1B NOI target moved up three years, and 175MW is live on time. x.comÂ
Applied Digital still looks cheap on its buildout, though it needs momentum and cooperative bond markets. Its CY26 deliveries may miss expectations by ~50MW, with a catch-up in early 2027; it plans 600MW in service over 12 months. Two expansion leases totaling 250MW are expected by year end at >15% higher pricing, later than first signaled. Macquarie is owed shares and ~25% of NOI on partnered North American deals; Finland's first 100MW is expected in 2028. x.comÂ
Contracted AI compute demand makes four AI infrastructure stocks worth buying at 52-week lows. Applied Digital has a $36B backlog and expects 600+ MW online within 12 months; Cipher Mining has $8.5B+ in AI leases with payments ramping; CleanSpark has a 20-year $6.6B lease and 1.8+ GW power portfolio; CoreWeave has a $104B backlog and raised its year-end ARR target to $18.5-19.5B. x.com x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital and Core Scientific should outperform Applied Digital over the next five years; buying Applied Digital now because it has surged looks foolish. A year ago it was a near-bankrupt bitcoin miner; it has since signed 900MW of colocation deals, a levered, lower-quality business rallying on an industry trend, like Intel versus Nvidia. Galaxy's profitable digital-assets arm and Core Scientific's earlier deals meant no bankruptcy risk was priced in, so they lagged. This could be wrong. … Show more
Applied Digital's contracted backlog is more than twice its market value, so the market is giving the backlog away for free. It has $16 billion of signed 15-year leases with CoreWeave and an investment-grade US hyperscaler against a $7.5 billion market value. Revenue rose 250% to $126.6 million in fiscal Q2, its first 100 MW Polaris Forge 1 building was delivered on time and budget, and Polaris Forge 2 has a 200 MW lease signed. Yet the stock fell from $41 to $27 while nothing broke. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's weekly chart looks promising, and the company has a $7.5B lease deal behind it. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's president reportedly bought 300,000 shares, a $5.66 million vote of confidence as the stock pulls back into the weekly Fibonacci buy zone. The chart marks a bullish turn only above $48.20. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's roughly $23 billion contracted revenue backlog against a market cap near $9.5 billion is a gap that could close rapidly. It has three signed hyperscaler leases: CoreWeave at Polaris Forge 1 ($11 billion), an investment-grade hyperscaler at Polaris Forge 2 ($5 billion) and a third at Delta Forge 1 ($7.5 billion). Borrowing against future rent instead of diluting shareholders is a solid approach, and Roth Capital raised its target to $65. The case depends on execution. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's AI and high-performance computing data centers could expand substantially as demand grows. It is a high-risk upside bet: construction costs, financing needs and dependence on large customers could impede that expansion. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's contracted AI data-center backlog should bring a dramatic shift in cash inflows as campuses come online through 2027 and beyond. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue rose 407% to $258.7 million. Leases of 210 MW at Delta Forge 2 and 300 MW at Delta Forge 1 bring contracted load to 1.4 GW, about $36 billion of 15-year take-or-pay revenue, funded by over $3.7 billion of senior secured notes. After a trendline breakout, a retest should precede a major move toward the mid-30s. x.comÂ
Applied Digital keeps signing hyperscale compute deals almost every month. Its latest is a 15-year lease worth $5.2B, and up to $12.7B, with the same investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW of IT load. CEO Wes Cummins said that two years ago the company deliberately chose to build a business that scales, not just to build data centers. x.comÂ
