Small Cap Snipa
AI & Data-Center Equity Research, Power Infrastructure & Cloud Compute
Applied Digital keeps signing hyperscale compute deals almost every month. Its latest is a 15-year lease worth $5.2B, and up to $12.7B, with the same investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW of IT load. CEO Wes Cummins said that two years ago the company deliberately chose to build a business that scales, not just to build data centers. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's new 15-year, $7.5 billion lease with a hyperscaler for 300 MW of critical IT load lifts its total contracted lease revenue above $23 billion. The 15-year term limits optionality, but de-risking matters for its balance sheet. It also secured an up to $300 million senior secured bridge facility to fund continued campus development. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Applied Digital's locked-in power is an irreplaceable asset amid an AI-driven power shortage. A Montana-Dakota Utilities deal secures grid capacity for its planned 430 MW campus, and a 15-year take-or-pay hyperscaler lease should bring about $5.2B of base revenue. Polaris Forge 1, leased to CoreWeave, delivered its first 100 MW building. Spinning APLD Cloud into ChronoScale with Ekso Bionics would make it a pure-play AI infrastructure landlord eligible for a growth premium. x.comÂ
Applied Digital is seeing relentless AI demand, now locked in by a massive 15-year take-or-pay lease for 210 MW. The lease adds roughly $5.2 billion of contracted revenue, bringing its total contracted portfolio to 1.4 GW and $36 billion. x.com x.comÂ
Applied Digital still looks cheap on its buildout, though it needs momentum and cooperative bond markets. Its CY26 deliveries may miss expectations by ~50MW, with a catch-up in early 2027; it plans 600MW in service over 12 months. Two expansion leases totaling 250MW are expected by year end at >15% higher pricing, later than first signaled. Macquarie is owed shares and ~25% of NOI on partnered North American deals; Finland's first 100MW is expected in 2028. x.comÂ
Applied Digital is set to benefit as hyperscaler capex commitments jumped from about $400 billion to nearly $700 billion in 90 days. It holds about $16 billion in contracted lease revenue, has three sites in exclusivity and expects new leases soon. Q3 revenue rose 139% to $126.6 million, crushing the $75.5 million consensus. CoreWeave upgraded its lease terms, which should lower refinancing costs, and management bonuses are tied to a goal of $1 billion in annual profit. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's contracted AI data-center backlog should bring a dramatic shift in cash inflows as campuses come online through 2027 and beyond. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue rose 407% to $258.7 million. Leases of 210 MW at Delta Forge 2 and 300 MW at Delta Forge 1 bring contracted load to 1.4 GW, about $36 billion of 15-year take-or-pay revenue, funded by over $3.7 billion of senior secured notes. After a trendline breakout, a retest should precede a major move toward the mid-30s. x.comÂ
Contracted AI compute demand makes four AI infrastructure stocks worth buying at 52-week lows. Applied Digital has a $36B backlog and expects 600+ MW online within 12 months; Cipher Mining has $8.5B+ in AI leases with payments ramping; CleanSpark has a 20-year $6.6B lease and 1.8+ GW power portfolio; CoreWeave has a $104B backlog and raised its year-end ARR target to $18.5-19.5B. x.com x.comÂ
Applied Digital's data-center buildout is paying off, with $73B of potential contracted revenue now signed with investment-grade hyperscalers. Earlier, with ground broken on Polaris Forge 2 and another deal in the works, the company already had a clear path to $1B+ in annual recurring revenue. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's AI and high-performance computing data centers could expand substantially as demand grows. It is a high-risk upside bet: construction costs, financing needs and dependence on large customers could impede that expansion. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's roughly $23 billion contracted revenue backlog against a market cap near $9.5 billion is a gap that could close rapidly. It has three signed hyperscaler leases: CoreWeave at Polaris Forge 1 ($11 billion), an investment-grade hyperscaler at Polaris Forge 2 ($5 billion) and a third at Delta Forge 1 ($7.5 billion). Borrowing against future rent instead of diluting shareholders is a solid approach, and Roth Capital raised its target to $65. The case depends on execution. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's contracted backlog is more than twice its market value, so the market is giving the backlog away for free. It has $16 billion of signed 15-year leases with CoreWeave and an investment-grade US hyperscaler against a $7.5 billion market value. Revenue rose 250% to $126.6 million in fiscal Q2, its first 100 MW Polaris Forge 1 building was delivered on time and budget, and Polaris Forge 2 has a 200 MW lease signed. Yet the stock fell from $41 to $27 while nothing broke. x.comÂ
