David Marlin
Founder of Marlin Capital, Long/Short Equities
Applied Digital's data-center buildout is paying off, with $73B of potential contracted revenue now signed with investment-grade hyperscalers. Earlier, with ground broken on Polaris Forge 2 and another deal in the works, the company already had a clear path to $1B+ in annual recurring revenue. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's AI and high-performance computing data centers could expand substantially as demand grows. It is a high-risk upside bet: construction costs, financing needs and dependence on large customers could impede that expansion. x.comÂ
Contracted AI compute demand makes four AI infrastructure stocks worth buying at 52-week lows. Applied Digital has a $36B backlog and expects 600+ MW online within 12 months; Cipher Mining has $8.5B+ in AI leases with payments ramping; CleanSpark has a 20-year $6.6B lease and 1.8+ GW power portfolio; CoreWeave has a $104B backlog and raised its year-end ARR target to $18.5-19.5B. x.com x.comÂ
Applied Digital is set to benefit as hyperscaler capex commitments jumped from about $400 billion to nearly $700 billion in 90 days. It holds about $16 billion in contracted lease revenue, has three sites in exclusivity and expects new leases soon. Q3 revenue rose 139% to $126.6 million, crushing the $75.5 million consensus. CoreWeave upgraded its lease terms, which should lower refinancing costs, and management bonuses are tied to a goal of $1 billion in annual profit. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's new hyperscaler lease is a catalyst worth buying on shakeouts. @epictrades1 notes the same US hyperscaler that signed at Delta Forge 1 has agreed to a long-term lease for its fourth AI Factory campus, Polaris Forge 3, designed for 300 MW of IT load backed by about 430 MW of grid power. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's locked-in power is an irreplaceable asset amid an AI-driven power shortage. A Montana-Dakota Utilities deal secures grid capacity for its planned 430 MW campus, and a 15-year take-or-pay hyperscaler lease should bring about $5.2B of base revenue. Polaris Forge 1, leased to CoreWeave, delivered its first 100 MW building. Spinning APLD Cloud into ChronoScale with Ekso Bionics would make it a pure-play AI infrastructure landlord eligible for a growth premium. x.comÂ
Applied Digital is seeing relentless AI demand, now locked in by a massive 15-year take-or-pay lease for 210 MW. The lease adds roughly $5.2 billion of contracted revenue, bringing its total contracted portfolio to 1.4 GW and $36 billion. x.com x.comÂ
Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's average analyst price target of $74.23 implies more than 200% upside, yet few people seem to be buying the stock. x.comÂ
Applied Digital keeps signing hyperscale compute deals almost every month. Its latest is a 15-year lease worth $5.2B, and up to $12.7B, with the same investment-grade hyperscaler for 210 MW of IT load. CEO Wes Cummins said that two years ago the company deliberately chose to build a business that scales, not just to build data centers. x.comÂ
Applied Digital's weekly chart looks promising, and the company has a $7.5B lease deal behind it. x.comÂ
