Iran selling oil in yuan while running the US blockade is bad for the US dollar. An Iranian military spokesman said 34 Iran-linked crude tankers have moved past the blockade, and sources cited by @DeFiTracer report the oil continues to be sold in yuan. x.com 

The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The US dollar looks more bullish than bearish because it is priced against other currencies that are hit harder by oil. Most countries' bond yields are rising, not just America's, and the US has the world's most dominant economy, which AI is accelerating relative to others. Still, trading currencies makes little sense when stocks are rising 25%+ a year. x.com 

The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

The US dollar is unlikely to break out in the short term without a catalyst. An in-line PCE print pulled down 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, the dollar index sits at major resistance at its May 2025 high, USD/JPY at 162 is a critical level for the Bank of Japan to defend, and currencies move slower than bonds. A reopened Strait of Hormuz would also help Europe and the euro recover, adding pressure; that favors short-term longs in gold and emerging markets. x.com  x.com 

The US dollar should strengthen over the long term as the US makes other countries reliant on its oil, a strategy that is working. The US is exporting more oil than it has in a long time. The bond move reflects rising energy prices, not a weak US economy, which is not actually that bad off. x.com 

The dollar's global role is at risk as Washington uses the threat of removal from the dollar system as a cudgel over minor issues. Treasury Secretary Bessent said any airport or company that serves Iranian airlines will be knocked out of the dollar system. If and when the dollar falters, crypto-based settlement will become a major global standard, and most investors are under-allocated to it. x.com 

Oil's slide from $120 during the war to $79 should continue as the US-Iran deal, due to be signed on the 19th in Switzerland, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the US naval blockade, restoring choked supply. Cheaper oil lowers US inflation and flips the market from expecting another hike toward rate cuts, lifting risk assets. The deal is only a 60-day MOU, though, and Israel is the problem: if anything blows up, oil rips and the chain runs in reverse. x.com 

The dollar should catch a monster bid before any structural weakness, because fiat is a menu of bad choices and in a deleveraging no one reaches for euros or renminbi. If the US concludes it will not win in AI, there is a high probability the next step is to tank everything, and the dollar and US bonds would then be bid; the yen could also rise as carry trades unwind. Dollar strength comes first and leads to structural dollar weakness on the other side. x.com  x.com 

The prospect of renewed US attacks on Iran sends long-dated Treasuries up this time. HormuzLetter relays Drop Site's report that US forces are positioning for an expected green light to resume attacks. x.com