The US dollar is losing hegemony after a costly, self-defeating fight over the Strait of Hormuz, hardly a bullish setup for it. As @eliant_capital lays it out, Hormuz was open, the US started a war that brought traffic to a standstill, spent billions fighting it, paid Iran billions to reopen the strait and declared victory. x.com 

The dollar's global role is at risk as Washington uses the threat of removal from the dollar system as a cudgel over minor issues. Treasury Secretary Bessent said any airport or company that serves Iranian airlines will be knocked out of the dollar system. If and when the dollar falters, crypto-based settlement will become a major global standard, and most investors are under-allocated to it. x.com 

The US dollar should strengthen over the long term as the US makes other countries reliant on its oil, a strategy that is working. The US is exporting more oil than it has in a long time. The bond move reflects rising energy prices, not a weak US economy, which is not actually that bad off. x.com 

Fears of US strikes on Iran could send crude oil to $200 quickly. FinanceLancelot reports that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading to the Middle East and says the move has revived concern that Trump will follow through on threats to hit Iran after the midterm elections. x.com 

Crude oil has a renewed risk premium now that the US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. Three commercial ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the US blamed Iran and struck back two days in a row, and President Trump said the ceasefire is over. The Treasury also pulled its waiver on Iranian oil sales from July 17, and Brent spiked as much as 7% toward $80. Each past crack in the ceasefire spiked oil and eventually calmed down, but nobody knows which time it won't. x.com 

The US dollar looks more bullish than bearish because it is priced against other currencies that are hit harder by oil. Most countries' bond yields are rising, not just America's, and the US has the world's most dominant economy, which AI is accelerating relative to others. Still, trading currencies makes little sense when stocks are rising 25%+ a year. x.com 

Emerging markets get squeezed when the dollar spikes, and the safe-haven dollar surge after US-Iran peace talks collapsed shows markets now pricing a longer conflict. A flight to safety reprices the odds of the conflict dragging on, which is bad for risk assets broadly, including growth stocks and emerging markets. Hard assets such as energy, commodities and gold catch a bid when diplomacy breaks down. This is not a time to chase moves. x.com 

The US dollar looks set for a multi-year bear cycle because a multipolar world needs fewer dollars. Reserve managers are diversifying, trade settles in more currencies and central banks accumulate gold instead. Against an equally weighted basket, the dollar's half-century sequence of lower secular highs is topping again on its 7-to-10-year cycle. Every major commodity bull of the past century ran alongside a falling dollar, which could also bring a second inflation wave. x.com 

The US dollar should keep strengthening against other currencies as Brent Johnson's dollar milkshake theory plays out, with stablecoins accelerating the move. The Turkish lira's fall to an all-time low against the dollar, down 98% since 2010 per Barchart, is an example of what other currencies will see. x.com 

Crude oil should reprice higher because the Iran conflict looks like a multi-year regime, not a short event, and no model carries a 2029 duration. The WSJ reported Vance and Rubio privately warned Trump it could last through his presidency, while the White House floats the biggest naval blockade in history. August PPI rose 5.4% year on year, above estimates, before any blockade effect. Houthis took Mocha and are moving on Bab al-Mandeb, with Brent above $100; $120 talk is the early repricing. … Show more