Danny cheng
Technology Investor, Homily Charts & Technical Analysis
Palantir, AMD and Nvidia are top-conviction holdings because world-class companies that fit each bull cycle's real narrative keep making higher highs, unlike speculative small caps. Small names are usually stories, not businesses; most never deliver, and even winners often suffer 70-90% drawdowns, so they belong in a tiny lottery-ticket slice. Quality names are best accumulated on drawdowns and crises over 3-10-year cycles rather than chased at highs. x.comÂ
Large, high-quality companies such as Palantir, AMD, Nvidia and Robinhood are a better path to wealth than small-cap lottery tickets. Over two decades at banks, the truly wealthy clients got rich by taking large positions in established businesses and adding during pullbacks and bear markets. Small caps sometimes become giants, but few investors can hold through 90%+ drawdowns. Position sizing determines results: even the right stock in a tiny allocation won't move the needle. x.comÂ
The semiconductor sector's bloat makes selectivity important. Nvidia, TSMC and ASML are among the best businesses still worth owning, but not every name will recover from this month's selloff. Chasing unprofitable, highly leveraged small caps should be a lesson from the selloff. x.comÂ
Repeatedly buying high-quality large-cap stocks is the easier path to real wealth because high-beta speculation is extremely risky: those stocks might 10x or go to zero. Too many speculative holdings are why portfolios underperform. Palantir, AMD, Micron, Meta, Apple and Marvell are the examples. x.comÂ
Financing risk makes AI-linked growth stocks unattractive to add here. Much of the money reaching suppliers such as Nvidia and Micron is financed, so harder funding would limit spending on chips, compute and memory. The buildout is not over, but stock prices could remain suppressed until it slows. A significant drawdown would make adding appealing; for many high-beta names with weak fundamentals and balance sheets, the highs look to be in. x.comÂ
Established technology and fintech leaders AMD, Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla, Palantir, SoFi and Robinhood build generational wealth, while speculative space and defense names Sidus Space, Spire Global, Satellogic and Ondas mostly deliver dopamine. One portfolio feels exciting; the other makes you rich. x.comÂ
John Tinsman's screen for profitable large caps in high-growth sectors with low valuations makes Nvidia, Micron, Sandisk, Broadcom, Meta and Alphabet buys. Tinsman expects downside volatility in growth and tech while seeking to retain their upside potential. x.comÂ
The bounce in semiconductors, including AMD, Micron and Intel, looks like a retail trap and exit liquidity rather than a durable move. The AI and semiconductor bull cycle is still in play, but a redistribution back down to weekly fair value looks next, after which big money should buy again. This is not a call to short. x.com x.comÂ
Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.comÂ
Palantir's government and commercial AI demand keeps compounding. Holding through volatility still calls for careful sizing: a 590% gain can turn into a 50% drawdown fast. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's downtrend could turn violent as the market chases shiny new sectors and the expensive narrative may still hold. It remains a top watchlist name, but it looks double-edged here, so patience is warranted. x.comÂ
Stocks with very high price-to-sales ratios, such as SpaceX, Snowflake, Palantir and Trump Media, are worth avoiding because higher price-to-sales has historically led to lower returns. Their annualized ratios are about 64.5, 20, 56.5 and 400. Growth investors are better served by Micron over SpaceX, Salesforce over Trump Media, Nvidia over Palantir and Alphabet over Snowflake. These companies' innovation is impressive, but valuation matters. x.com x.comÂ
